Lamar Jackson Fantasy Outlook 2026: The Injury That Changed How Baltimore Uses Him

What the injury actually took away

In 2024 Lamar Jackson threw 41 touchdowns, rushed for 915 yards and four scores, and finished as the overall QB1 in fantasy scoring. The dual-threat ceiling was not theoretical — it was what he delivered for a full season. Our board had him second among quarterbacks going into 2025, and ESPN had him second as well.

He missed four games mid-season with a lower-body injury that was never described as serious but clearly changed how Baltimore deployed him after his return. Across his final nine starts he averaged 13.5 points per game, which is low-end QB2 production from a player drafted as a locked-in weekly starter.

The rushing volume disappeared. He finished with 349 rushing yards against a posted line of 750.5, missing by more than half. His passing line held closer to expectation in rate stats but collapsed in volume — 2,549 yards against 3,450.5 — because he simply was not on the field for four games and was not the same player when he returned.

Across his final nine starts he averaged 13.5 points per game, which is low-end QB2 production from a player drafted as a locked-in weekly starter.

Which parts of the profile survived

Six of his 13 games cleared 20 PPR points, including a Week 1 ceiling game of 29.4. His worst performance was a 4.7 in Week 11, late in the season when the lingering effects of the injury were most visible. The boom rate when healthy was still there — the problem was that healthy became conditional.

The passing efficiency stayed functional. Twenty-one touchdowns across 13 games is a 27-touchdown pace over 17, which is not far off the 28.5 the market posted. What broke was not his arm or his decision-making. It was the designed quarterback runs and scrambles that used to add 50 rushing yards per game and now added 27.