Matchup Overview

The Golden State Warriors (1-0) and Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) will face off in Game 2 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on TNT. The Timberwolves are 10.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Timberwolves -10.5), with the over/under set at 201.5 total points. Minnesota is a -500 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +375 to pull off the upset.

Game 1 recap & Game 2 outlook

The Timberwolves’ offensive struggles reached historic levels in Game 1, shooting just 5-for-29 from three and missing their first 16 attempts—part of a two-game stretch in which they’ve shot a record-low 15.7% from deep. Even after losing Steph Curry early to a hamstring injury, Golden State maintained control thanks to early momentum and Minnesota’s inability to capitalize on wide-open looks. Draymond Green provided a spark with four first-half threes, but the Warriors didn’t need to be great—they just needed to stay steady while the Timberwolves shot themselves out of the game. Despite a second-half push from Anthony Edwards, Minnesota was held to 39.5% from the field and never seriously threatened. But if they see even modest progression offensively—especially from deep—the dynamic of this series changes fast. Their current numbers are unsustainably poor, and with a clear size advantage and Golden State now missing Curry, the margin for error is shrinking quickly on the Warriors’ side.

Prop spotlight

Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are in excellent spots to find success tonight. Curry's absence diminishes the Warriors' perimeter threat, particularly in pick-and-roll situations that previously exploited Gobert's defensive positioning. Without Curry's elite shooting and ball-handling to draw Gobert away from the basket, the Warriors' offense lacks the same capacity to force unfavorable switches for Gobert. This allows him to remain closer to the rim, greatly increasing his potential rebounding chances. He managed 11 rebounds on 25 rebounding chances in game 1, extending his streak of recording at least 9 rebounds vs Golden State to 13. The Warriors may roll out a small ball lineup in an attempt to limit Gobert’s impact, but that shift presents an opportunity for Reid to capitalize on mismatches, especially against defenders like Kevon Looney or Draymond Green. Reid's ability to stretch the floor with his shooting and drive past slower or smaller defenders with his combination of size and speed could be crucial for this Timberwolves team, especially with the Warriors' vulnerabilities against versatile big men who can shoot from the perimeter. Naz has scored at least 9 points in all 5 games vs the Warriors this season, averaging over 11 FGA and 6 3PA per game. He had 5 three point attempts that were classified as “wide open” in game 1, and another 2 that were classified as “open”.

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Free Play

Game 2 presents a pivotal opportunity for Minnesota to reset the tone of this series. While their offensive woes were glaring in Game 1, those shooting numbers are more likely to regress positively than persist. If the Timberwolves can combine even average perimeter shooting with their existing physical and matchup advantages, they’re in prime position to even this series—and do it convincingly. Given all the factors in play, this game sets up with rare clarity on where the edge lies. We don’t typically recommend parlays, but today’s matchup presents a rare opportunity where the value aligns perfectly. With Minnesota’s bounce-back spot, Curry’s absence, and two clear statistical edges in Gobert and Reid, this safety parlay stands out as a high-confidence play. See the parlay below:

Same Game Parlay (-124 FD):

• Timberwolves ML
• Naz Reid 9+ points
• Rudy Gobert 8+ rebounds

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