With Illia Topuria moving up to 155 lbs, the Featherweight title is vacant and up for grabs for the first time since 2016. Former champion and #1 ranked Featherweight Alexander Volkanovski is set to face off against a rising star in Diego Lopes Saturday night in Miami. Let's take a closer look at the UFC 314 main event below.

Volkanovski is currently a slight favorite, sitting around -140 on most books, but has been priced as high as -160 at places like FanDuel, Draft Kings, and MGM. 

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Tale of the tape:

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After a strong UFC debut, where he impressed on short notice against Movsar Evloev, Diego Lopes has ripped off 5 straight wins in dominant fashion against the likes of Brian Ortega, Dan Ige, Sodiq Yusuf, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker. His Jiu Jitsu is elite, he’s won 12 out of his 26 fights by submission and has never once been subbed himself, and he has a ton of power in his hands to go along with it. He has an average fight time of just 6 minutes and is extremely dangerous in the early stages, winning 14 out of his last 22 fights in the first round. But, if he doesn’t find a finish early on it could be a longggg 5 rounds for the Brazilian.

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Arguably the greatest featherweight of all time, Volknovski has dropped 3 out of his last 4 fights and is coming off back to back losses for the first time in his career. The Australian legend fought four times in 365 days from early 2023-2024 but stepped away for over a year to reset & recover after his most recent KO loss to Illia Topuria. 

The question everyone seems to be asking is, how much does Volk have left in the tank? He looked like a shell of himself in his two most recent fights but went up against some of the toughest competition in the sport. Is father time catching up with him? Or was he just outclassed by younger & better competition? I’m more inclined to argue that it’s the latter, and with an extended layoff and a drop in competition I expect a strong showing from the former champion on Saturday night.

Simply put, Volk knows how to win. He has incredible fight IQ, footwork, cardio, and controls distance & range at an elite level. He won’t get baited into a slugfest and should pick apart the less experienced fighter as time wears on. He has far more tools in his arsenal and paths to victory, and outside of an early KO I don't see how Lopes can keep up with “The Great” once we get into the later rounds.

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PICK: Alexander Volkanovski ML

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