Timberwolves vs Thunder: Game 5 Best Bet

Nickeil Alexander-Walker: A Sneaky Good Value for Tonight’s Matchup

As the Timberwolves look to stave off elimination in the Western Conference Finals, one player has quietly been stepping up in a big way: Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

While all the attention is understandably on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, Alexander-Walker has carved out a steady, impactful role off the bench. His defensive assignments this series—especially against his cousin and league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—have been crucial. His lateral quickness and anticipation have been key in trying to slow down Shai, and while it’s a tall order, the Timberwolves’ defensive rating has been significantly better with NAW on the floor.

But it’s not just his defense that’s making a difference. With Mike Conley struggling, Alexander-Walker has taken on more minutes—averaging 25 per game this series, aside from the Game 3 blowout. In Game 4, he erupted for 23 points on 9-of-15 shooting, including a blistering 5-for-8 from deep, adding four rebounds, six assists, and two steals. That performance was a clear reminder of what he’s capable of when he gets enough looks, and he’s likely to get those looks again tonight. The Thunder are doing everything they can to bottle up Edwards and Randle, leaving players like NAW with open opportunities. This isn’t new—it’s been a theme all season. In his last seven meetings against OKC, he’s averaged 11.5 field goal attempts and 6.5 threes, consistently finding himself with space to fire away. Nearly 90% of his threes in this series have been classified as “open” (4-6 ft of space), or “wide open” (6+ feet of space). 

Here’s the kicker: when Alexander-Walker takes at least 8 shots, he’s scored 10 or more points in 29 out of 39 games. When he takes 10 or more shots, he’s done it in 22 of 26 games. In other words, the volume is there, and he’s converting at a high rate. 

With the Timberwolves’ season on the line, expect him to get plenty of opportunities—both because of the defensive attention on his teammates and because the team knows they need his spark. Betting on him to hit double digits again tonight is a play that makes a ton of sense tonight.

Best Bet: Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 9.5 points (-110 DK)