We’ve got a birdie fest on our hands this week at TPC Ranch in McKinney, Texas. This is the fifth iteration of the CJCBN and each winner has gone lowwwww

◦ 2024: Taylor Pendrith -23
◦ 2023: Jason Day -23
◦ 2022: K.H. Lee -26
◦ 2021: K.H. Lee -25

It’s a par-71 course stretching 7.569 yards, making it the sixth longest course on tour this year. It creates an emphasis on driving, along with long iron game, and of course, finding birdies in bunches, as it features wide fairways, forgiving rough, and a very high rate of approach shots from 200+ yards. TPC Craig Ranch sets up perfectly for big hitters to unleash and rack up birdies.

Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler is atop the odds leaderboard, sitting at around +275 at most shops. You would have to mentally ill to be putting money on anyone to win a golf tournament at those odds though. So, let’s look into a couple of guys further down the board who fit the criteria above.

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Stephan Jaeger 40/1 (FD)

This is the German’s fourth appearance at the CJCBN.

◦ 2024: T20
◦ 2023: T11
◦ 2022: T38

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Across those 12 rounds, he ranks seventh in total shots gained, and first off the tee among the field who have played here before. Jaegar tends to fare well at this type of event as well. Over the last three years, he is seventh in strokes gained at easy/very easy courses and is sixth in shots gained at longer tracks, per Betsperts.

We have seen him in contention on a few occasions this year, posting a T3 at the Sony Open, T6 at the Mexico Open (similar course), T20 at The Players, and T11 at the Houston Open. He went toe-to-toe with Scottie at the Houston Open in 2023, and beat him en route to his first PGA Tour win. At 40/1 he is worth a shot to contend here, and will likely be a popular play this week.

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Alejandro Tosti 90/1 (FD)

Further down the board, we have the 28-year-old Argentine, who bombs it off the tee at the fifth-highest average on tour (315.9) this year. His putting let him down in his first appearance here, leading to a missed cut, but he struck the ball well, gaining 2.94 strokes tee to green.

Tosti comes into the week with form, finishing T2 at Coales Puntacana, T12 at the Valero Texas Open, and T5 at the Houston Open over his last three solo events. He also had a T10 at the Mexico Open back in February. While he might be better suited as a first round leader (75/1), a dart throw at a 90/1 outright looks solid too.