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As we turn the page to Game 5, the series returns to Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder are currently listed as 9.5-point favorites. The total is set around 224.5, and the moneyline prices Oklahoma City at roughly -425, with Indiana as a +325 underdog. Historically, the winner of Game 5 in a tied NBA Finals has gone on to win the series in 23 of the last 31 instances, so Monday night’s showdown carries enormous implications. Oklahoma City has been nearly unbeatable at home this postseason, going 9-2 overall. Indiana, however, has shown resilience—undefeated in the playoffs following a loss (5–0).
This was supposed to be a cake-walk of a series for the Oklahoma City Thunder, yet look at where we are now. The NBA Finals have delivered on all fronts, with the Pacers playing with far more fight than any oddsmaker could have predicted. Can they play spoiler the way they did in Game 1? We'll find out tonight at 8:30 PM ET. Here are three of my favorite player props for tonight's action.
Alex Caruso o17.5 PRA (-105)
Backing the bald-headed bench man for Oklahoma City has been a staple for yours truly throughout the playoffs. While this number has escalated to 17.5, compared to the 12.5 we were getting earlier in the playoffs, it is still playable based on the usage he is getting in the Finals. Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault trusts Alex Caruso and his championship pedigree style of play more than ever.
Caruso is averaging a little more than 29 minutes per game against Indiana, and has turned that into 19, 24, 17, and 23 PRA this series.
Tyrese Haliburton u30.5 PRA (-110)
Aside from Game 3, Tyrese Haliburton has been held in check to this line against OKC. It's not all that surprising, as he is dealing with a historically great defense that has a ton of elite perimeter defenders they can cycle on and off of Haliburton. Including their two regular season meetings, Haliburton has stayed under this in five of six games, averaging 27.3 PRA per game. Now on the road, they'll continue to make life difficult for him and will place all their attention on what he does.
Luguentz Dort o11.5 PR (-125)
The old adage says that role players perform better at home, and no one fits that to a tee more than Luguentz Dort. He saw his 3-Point% jump nearly 10% when at home this season, shooting just 35% from three on the road and nearly 45% when at home. He has combined for 12+ points + rebounds in eight of 11 home games during the playoffs, averaging a combined 13.6 points + rebounds per game. Look for him to hit a couple of moon ball threes in this one, the Pacers are more than willing to let him fire away from deep.
With the NBA Finals knotted at two games apiece, Game 5 is shaping up to be the series' defining moment. The Thunder have reclaimed momentum and return home where they’ve been dominant, while the Pacers continue to defy expectations with grit and resilience. Whether you’re backing the home favorite or eyeing another Indiana upset, there’s no shortage of betting value on the board.
Lock in your picks and don’t miss tip-off at 8:30 PM ET. For more data-driven betting insights, daily picks, and system plays, be sure to follow along and subscribe to the full slate at The Betting Insider.
