Tournament Overview

The regular season is in the books, and now the real drama begins. The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off tonight, with eight teams fighting for the final four playoff spots and the chance to make a run to the Finals as the Heat did in 2023. With everything on the line — and nothing guaranteed — these games bring a level of urgency that even the regular playoffs can't match.

That urgency doesn’t just change the stakes — it changes the style of play. When everything’s on the line, teams tend to tighten up. It’s less run-and-gun, more grind-it-out. Possessions slow down, time is managed more carefully, and defense becomes the priority. 

Add the pressure of a national spotlight, and it’s no surprise that scoring efficiency tends to dip. The atmosphere is more intense, the crowd is louder, and every mistake feels magnified. Even experienced players can shoot worse in high-leverage spots — and for younger or first-time Play-In participants, nerves can have a devastating effect on performance. 

That, along with a few strong systems, is why we’re leaning under for tonight’s free pick — the value lies in expecting a tighter, more controlled game than the oddsmakers are projecting.

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Systems Overview

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1H Unders in the Play-In: First half unders are 20-4 all time in the Play-In Tournament (83% win rate, 59% ROI). 

• If both teams have a win% of .500 or better, these 1H unders improve to 11-1. 
• If the under is also getting 40% or less of the public’s bets, these 1H unders improve to 6-0.

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1H Unders in the Playoffs, Fast Paced Underdogs: First half unders have hit 62% of the time if the home team is favored and the visitor plays at a pace average of 101 or more. 

• If the Home team plays at a slower pace, i.e. 100.5 or less, these 1H unders improve to 38-19-1 (67% win rate, 27% ROI). 
• And if the total is above 96, these 1H unders improve to 32-13-1 (71% win rate, 35% ROI). 

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Both of these systems, and all of their variations, are active in tonight’s matchup between the Grizzlies and Warriors… but that’s not all. We have seen some major RLM, with the total moving down 3 points despite the under only getting 11% of public bets and 13% of public money. 

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Pick: Grizzlies / Warriors 1H under 110.5

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All of our Insider Bets subscribers got this play early, and this is just one of many that we have dropped so far for the NBA Play-In Tournament. Click below to join now.