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The Indiana Pacers (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) are set to battle in Game 2 of the NBA Finals tonight, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on ABC. Following a heartbreaking loss in Game 1, the Thunder enter as 11-point favorites, and the total has been set at 228.5 points.
This is as close to a must-win as it gets for Oklahoma City. After squandering a double-digit second-half lead and losing Game 1 on a dagger from Tyrese Haliburton, the Thunder now face the possibility of heading to Indiana down 0–2. That’s a dangerous hole to be in — teams that go up 2–0 in a playoff series have gone on to win 433 out of 467 times, a staggering 92.7% clip. In the NBA Finals, only three road teams have ever taken a 2–0 lead, and each of them closed out the series. The Pacers have a chance to put themselves in that same elite company tonight.
Oklahoma City will need to respond — and fast. Head coach Mark Daigneault called his team’s Game 1 defense “unfocused” and admitted that transition breakdowns and a lack of discipline in key moments cost them. That’s uncharacteristic for a squad that has been among the league’s most composed and balanced all season. Expect a more intentional approach in Game 2, with a focus on controlling the tempo and limiting Indiana’s ability to get out in transition. The Thunder thrive when they can slow the game down, dictate matchups, and let their length and athleticism wear on opponents. Expect better execution on the glass as well — Oklahoma City was out-rebounded 56–39 in Game 1, which simply can’t happen again.
While most eyes will be on whether the Thunder can cover the spread, we’re directing our attention to the total. At 228.5, this line suggests another up-tempo game, but that may not align with how OKC wants to play. The Thunder are likely to prioritize defense, make life tougher on Haliburton, and avoid the kind of open-court chaos that let Indiana steal Game 1. We have several of our top NBA Playoff systems lining up on the UNDER tonight — and when the models and the matchup agree, it’s a spot worth trusting.
System 1) Playoff unders: home team off a close loss that went well under
- 67% win rate, 32% ROI
- Home team’s previous game margin is between -1 and -8
- Home team’s previous O/U margin is between -5 and -50
- Postseason matchup
System 2) Finals Unders: Home team favored, against the public
- 76% win rate, 28% ROI
- Home team’s spread is between -4 and -20
- No more than 35% of public bets are on the under
- NBA Finals matchup
System 3) Finals unders: high total, against the public, home team favored
- In the NBA Finals, games have gone under 78% of the time if the home team is favored, the total is set at 205 points or higher, and the under is receiving less than 40% of public bets.
- If the total is set above 210, the Under has hit 82% of the time.
- If the total is set above 213, the Under has hit 91% of the time.
Best Bet: Pacers vs Thunder under 228.5 (-108 DK)
All signs point toward a more focused, deliberate effort from Oklahoma City in Game 2. If they can limit Indiana’s fast-break chances and clean up the rebounding margin, they should be able to grind this game into their preferred pace. And if that happens, the UNDER could very well be the sharpest play on the board. Join Insider Bets now for more system backed plays like this, every single day.
