Matchup Preview:

From 68 contenders to just 2 survivors, only Florida and Houston are left to battle for the National Championship tonight in San Antonio.

Florida is currently a 1 point favorite and around -115 on the ML, which is the closest a spread has been in a National Championship game since 2017. Florida’s ML is receiving 55% of public bets and 30% of public money, while their spread is receiving 57% of public bets and 47% of public money. We are seeing a bit of reverse line movement on the total, as it moved down a point to 140.5 despite the over receiving 90% of public bets.

This championship game presents a classic clash of styles: Florida's fast-paced, high-scoring offense against Houston's disciplined, suffocating defense. The Cougars will seek to control the pace, leveraging their defensive tenacity to disrupt Florida's rhythm and pace. The Cougars’ defense ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (kenpom), characterized by intense on-ball pressure, disciplined rotations, and a focus on limiting 2nd chance opportunities. Houston's ability to control the tempo and force Florida into a half-court game will be key as they likely won’t be able to keep up with the Gators if this turns into a shootout which, unfortunately for Houston, is exactly what we think will occur.

The Gators will aim to push the tempo and capitalize on their offensive strengths, they play at a blistering pace and are one of the best teams in the country in transition; Houston hasn’t faced a team this willing and able to push the tempo and attack the fast break, which is how Florida will take advantage and win their first national title since 2007. Houston’s offense has proven to be streaky and turnover prone this tournament which could be devastating against a Florida defense that has been among the best in the tournament at forcing turnovers, and a Florida offense that can turn those turnovers into points in bunches. They are led by the dynamic transfer Walter Clayton Jr, who took his game to another level this tournament averaging nearly 25 ppg while shooting nearly 50% from 3.

We are backing the Florida Gators on the ML @ -104 on PolyMarket.

System) MM favorites off a win as a favorite

• 36 wins, 6 losses (86% win rate, 26% ROI)
• Team is the favorite
• Team was the favorite in their previous game
• Round is the Final 4 or Championship

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