Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Yankees vs Twins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)
Last updated: September 17, 2025Game Time: 9/17, 07:40PM
Today's Setup
Tonight's MLB matchup features the New York Yankees traveling to face the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees are favored by DraftKings, listed at -175, while the Twins are at +143 underdogs, with a significant 81% of the money backing the Yankees. This game presents intriguing betting angles, particularly in pitcher-batter matchups and team strikeout tendencies.Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil (NYY) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)Luis Gil (NYY):
Luis Gil offers a diverse pitch arsenal with significant velocity: Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (35% usage, 87.4 mph), Splitter (19% usage, 81.9 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.0 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph). Gil's approach relies heavily on speed, making him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Twins lineup averages .253 this season but has a projected xBA of .220 against Gil's pitch mix.Taj Bradley (MIN):
Bradley counters with a formidable arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (23% usage, 89.7 mph), Splitter (16% usage, 91.3 mph), and Curveball (15% usage, 81.7 mph). Bradley is another velocity-centric pitcher, challenging hitters with his fastball and cutter combination. The Yankees lineup averages .253 this season and projects an xBA of .256 vs Bradley’s arsenal.Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesFor Yankees vs Taj Bradley: The Yankees' lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .256 against Bradley's pitches.
- Trent Grisham: Season BA .238 → xBA vs Bradley .281 (+43 points), Season K% 22.6% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (-4.2%)
- Aaron Judge: Season BA .326 → xBA vs Bradley .306 (-20 points), Season K% 24.2% → Arsenal K% 31.0% (+6.8%)
For Twins vs Luis Gil: The Twins' lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .220 against Gil's arsenal.
- Kody Clemens: Season BA .214 → xBA vs Gil .238 (+24 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 26.0% (+2.9%)
- Luke Keaschall: Season BA .313 → xBA vs Gil .199 (-114 points), Season K% 12.8% → Arsenal K% 24.1% (+11.3%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 26.2% vs Bradley — up 1.01% from their 25.2% season average.
- The Twins' projected K-rate is 24.3% vs Gil — up 3.86% from their 20.5% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.What to Bet On
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our strict criteria in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Trent Grisham emerges as the standout batter for the Yankees with a significant xBA increase against Bradley.
- No strikeout prop opportunities meet the threshold for either team, despite increased K-rates.
- Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to prop stability.
- Favorable betting leans towards Yankees' moneyline, backed by heavy public support and lineup advantages.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Twins game? A: Trent Grisham stands out with a significant xBA boost, making him a prop favorite.
Q: Is the assigned umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which adds volatility to betting props.
Q: What time is the Yankees vs Twins game? A: The game starts at 07:40 PM.
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