November 3, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

MIL vs CHC: Betting Preview & Props (Nov 03)

Last updated: November 03, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Game Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs, all eyes will be on the pitching duel at Wrigley Field. The Brewers will rely on Freddy Peralta, while the Cubs counter with Matthew Boyd. Unfortunately, betting odds are not yet available for this matchup, leaving bettors in anticipation to see where the lines will land.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs Matthew Boyd

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Freddy Peralta brings a power-packed arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy style, Peralta's pitches are tailor-made for strikeouts, but the Cubs lineup has collectively averaged .247 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Peralta's mix.

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Matthew Boyd counters with a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.5 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 92.0 mph). Boyd's pitch selection makes him a pitch-mix artist, likely to engage the Brewers' hitters who have averaged .259 this season but project to .265 against Boyd’s arsenal.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Milwaukee Brewers vs Matthew Boyd: The Brewers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .265 vs Boyd's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (+51 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-33 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.0%)

For Chicago Cubs vs Freddy Peralta: The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 vs Peralta's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.3% (+1.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.254 → .305, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn shows a significant batting advantage against Matthew Boyd.
Freddy Peralta is poised for a strong strikeout performance against the Cubs' lineup.
Umpire assignment is currently unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Lean on Peralta for strikeout props due to Cubs' elevated K-rate projection.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the MIL vs CHC game? A: Andrew Vaughn meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA increase to .305.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making this aspect uncertain for now.

Q: What time is the MIL vs CHC game? A: Game time is TBD.

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