Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Yankees vs Twins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 16)
Last updated: September 16, 2025Game Time: 9/16, 07:40PM
Today's Setup
In this AL matchup, the New York Yankees visit the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees are coming in as strong favorites, with DraftKings setting the line at −176 in favor of New York. The Twins, meanwhile, are +144 underdogs, and with 90% of the money backing the Yankees, expectations are high for a New York victory.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Zebby Matthews
Cam Schlittler (NYY):
Cam Schlittler is a velocity-heavy pitcher with an impressive arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage, 98.0 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 83.2 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 97.2 mph), and Sweeper (3% usage, 87.9 mph). The Twins lineup has struggled against such power pitching, averaging .245 this season with a projected xBA of .246 against Schlittler's arsenal.
Zebby Matthews (MIN):
Zebby Matthews brings a balanced mix of velocity and movement: Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 96.3 mph), Slider (25% usage, 88.4 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 91.8 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 87.4 mph), Curveball (6% usage, 83.0 mph), and Sinker (6% usage, 95.8 mph). The Yankees lineup, a formidable force, averages .252 but projects slightly lower at .252 against Matthews.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Yankees vs Zebby Matthews: The Yankees lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .252 against Matthews' arsenal. Key performers include:
- Ryan McMahon: Season BA .217 → xBA vs arsenal .238 (+21 points), Season K% 31.7% → Arsenal K% 32.2% (+0.5%)
For Twins vs Cam Schlittler: The Twins lineup averages .252 but projects to .246 against Schlittler's mix. Notable changes include:
- Trevor Larnach: Season BA .252 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+30 points), Season K% 20.8% → Arsenal K% 16.3% (-4.5%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 27.1% vs Matthews — up 1.7% from their 25.4% season average.
- The Twins' projected K-rate is 22.4% vs Schlittler — up 1.0% from their 21.4% season average.
Higher strikeout projections suggest potential value in pitcher strikeout props.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No significant strikeout prop alerts as no K% increase meets our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Trevor Larnach shows a strong edge against Schlittler's style, making him a potential prop target.
- Both teams exhibit slightly higher strikeout potential, but not enough for a strong pitcher K prop recommendation.
- Umpire results are pending, adding uncertainty to prop predictions.
- Overall, the game leans towards a Yankees win, but betting props should focus on individual batter performance.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Twins game? A: Trevor Larnach meets our strict betting criteria with a +30 point increase in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.
Q: What time is the Yankees vs Twins game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/16 at 07:40PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
