September 21, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Yankees vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 21)

Last updated: September 21, 2025

Game Time: 9/21, 01:35PM

Brief Intro

The New York Yankees head to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a crucial matchup that features intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. With the Yankees pegged as a -137 favorite and the Orioles as a +112 underdog on DraftKings, 83% of the money is backing the Yankees, highlighting the betting community's confidence in the Bronx Bombers.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)

Cam Schlittler (NYY):

Schlittler offers a dynamic arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 98.0 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 91.7 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 83.2 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 97.4 mph), Sweeper (3% usage, 87.9 mph). He is a velocity-heavy pitcher with an impressive mix of pitches designed to keep batters off balance. The Baltimore lineup has averaged .254 this season and projects an xBA of .255 against Schlittler's diverse arsenal.

Kyle Bradish (BAL):

Bradish counters with a mix of Sinker (34% usage, 94.7 mph), Slider (29% usage, 86.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 94.2 mph), and Curveball (13% usage, 83.5 mph). This pitch-mix artist could pose challenges to the Yankees, who have averaged .252 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against Bradish's blend of pitches.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Yankees vs Kyle Bradish: The Yankees lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .264 against Bradish's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Anthony Volpe: Season BA .210 → xBA vs arsenal .263 (+53 points), Season K% 25.2% → Arsenal K% 23.9% (-1.3%)
Biggest Decrease: None with significant changes

For Orioles vs Cam Schlittler: The Orioles lineup averages .242 this season but projects to .255 against Schlittler's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Samuel Basallo: Season BA .185 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (+47 points), Season K% 21.2% → Arsenal K% 17.6% (-3.6%)
Biggest Decrease: Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .277 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-22 points), Season K% 19.6% → Arsenal K% 24.4% (+4.8%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 24.8% vs Bradish — down 0.0% from their 24.8% season average.
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs Schlittler — down 1.5% from their 24.8% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Anthony Volpe (.210 → .263, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for pitcher strikeout props in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Anthony Volpe shows a substantial increase in projected xBA, making him a strong candidate for a prop bet.
Kyle Bradish presents a mixed challenge to the Yankees with his versatile pitching repertoire.
Both team strikeout rates show no significant deviation from season averages, suggesting minimal edge in K props.
The absence of umpire data adds uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Orioles game? A: Anthony Volpe stands out as he meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA increase.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/21 at 01:35PM.

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