August 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Yankees vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 17)

Last updated: August 17, 2025

Game Time: 8/17, 02:15PM

Today's Setup

The New York Yankees head to Busch Stadium for a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. DraftKings lists the Yankees as a -149 favorite, with the Cardinals as a +123 underdog, and 82% of the betting action favoring New York. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics and lineup matchups.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Will Warren vs Miles Mikolas

Will Warren (NYY):

Will Warren brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 93.2 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 82.5 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 93.1 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 86.9 mph), and Curveball (7% usage, 79.8 mph). Warren's mix positions him as a pitch-mix artist, able to keep hitters guessing with varied speeds and movements. The Cardinals lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .241 against Warren's offerings.

Miles Mikolas (STL):

Miles Mikolas counters with his own varied mix: Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 92.7 mph), Slider (24% usage, 87.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.6 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 92.2 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 85.7 mph), and Sweeper (4% usage, 80.8 mph). Mikolas relies on strategic pitch selection rather than overpowering velocity. The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects to a .242 xBA against Mikolas' arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For NYY vs Miles Mikolas:

The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .242 against Mikolas.
Biggest Increase: Ryan McMahon: Season BA .222 → xBA vs arsenal .233 (+11 points), Season K% 31.1% → Arsenal K% 34.8% (+3.7%)
Biggest Decrease: Ben Rice: Season BA .277 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (-71 points), Season K% 22.2% → Arsenal K% 34.7% (+12.5%)

For STL vs Will Warren:

The Cardinals lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .241 against Warren.
Biggest Increase: Nolan Gorman: Season BA .226 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (+24 points), Season K% 30.2% → Arsenal K% 27.4% (-2.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-65 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 21.7% (+0.6%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 29.4% vs Mikolas — up 3.6% from their 25.8% season average.
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.9% vs Warren — up 2.6% from their 20.2% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Nolan Gorman (.226 → .250, +24 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our pitcher strikeout prop threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Nolan Gorman shows a significant expected batting average increase against Warren, making him a potential prop target.
Both team lineups show increased strikeout rates against opposing pitchers, but no pitcher prop meets our stringent criteria.
Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to prop betting dynamics.
Overall, the game presents a cautious betting environment with limited clear advantages.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Cardinals game? A: Nolan Gorman shows a notable increase against Warren, making him a betting lean.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so no tendencies can be assessed.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Cardinals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/17, 02:15PM.

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