October 1, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Padres vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 01)

Last updated: October 01, 2025

Game Time: 10/1, 03:08PM

Brief Intro

The San Diego Padres face off against the Chicago Cubs in an intriguing matchup on October 1st. With Dylan Cease taking the mound for the Padres and Andrew Kittredge for the Cubs, this game promises to showcase a blend of power pitching and strategic hitting. Currently, betting odds are not available for this game, adding an element of mystery for bettors aiming to capitalize on the day's matchups.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Andrew Kittredge

Dylan Cease (SD):

Dylan Cease brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with the following pitch types: Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 97.1 mph), Slider (41% usage, 89.1 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 82.3 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 96.1 mph), Sweeper (4% usage, 84.3 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 77.3 mph). Cease is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a strong reliance on his fastball and slider, making him a formidable opponent for any lineup. The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .239 versus Cease's arsenal, indicating a potential struggle to connect with his pitches effectively.

Andrew Kittredge (CHC):

Andrew Kittredge relies heavily on his Slider (53% usage, 89.2 mph) and Sinker (36% usage, 95.2 mph), supplemented by a Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage, 94.7 mph) and a Splitter (1% usage, 88.5 mph). Kittredge's pitch mix is designed to induce ground balls and limit hard contact. The Padres lineup averages .266 this season with a projected xBA of .276 versus Kittredge's arsenal, suggesting they may find more success against his pitches.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Padres vs Andrew Kittredge: The Padres lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .276 vs Kittredge's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Jr. Tatis: Season BA .268 → xBA vs arsenal .306 (+38 points), Season K% 18.7% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-1.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Luis Arraez: Season BA .292 → xBA vs arsenal .268 (-24 points), Season K% 3.1% → Arsenal K% 2.6% (-0.5%)

For Cubs vs Dylan Cease: The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .239 vs Cease's arsenal.

Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .215 (-51 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 19.8% (+5.1%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.1% vs Andrew Kittredge — up 0.4% from their 17.7% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Dylan Cease — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Tatis (.268 → .306, +38 points) meets the betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Dylan Cease strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jr. Tatis shows a significant advantage against Kittredge, making him a prime candidate for hitting props.
Dylan Cease's strikeout potential is elevated given the Cubs' increased K-rate projection.
The lack of umpire assignment introduces volatility to betting props, advising caution.
Overall, there are strong statistical edges for both hitting and pitching props in this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Cubs game? A: Jr. Tatis meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in xBA against Kittredge.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to determine tendencies.

Q: What time is the Padres vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/1, 03:08PM.

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