September 4, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Yankees vs Astros: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 04)

Last updated: September 04, 2025

Game Time: 9/4, 07:40PM

Brief Intro

The New York Yankees face off against the Houston Astros, with the Yankees coming in as favorites. DraftKings lists the Yankees at -137, while the Astros are +113 underdogs. Notably, 79% of the money is backing the Yankees, indicating strong public confidence in New York's chances.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón vs Cristian Javier

Carlos Rodón (NYY):

Rodón brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 94.2 mph), Slider (30% usage, 85.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.0 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 92.1 mph), and Curveball (4% usage, 80.3 mph). This pitch mix makes him a velocity-heavy pitcher with a penchant for strikeouts. The Astros lineup has a challenging .257 average against his arsenal, with a projected xBA of .257.

Cristian Javier (HOU):

Javier counters with a varied set of pitches: Sinker (42% usage, 92.1 mph), Cutter (22% usage, 89.1 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage, 92.5 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 77.3 mph), Changeup (3% usage, 86.0 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 83.3 mph). The Yankees lineup averages .287 against his arsenal, indicating potential trouble for Javier.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Yankees vs Cristian Javier:

The Yankees lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .287 against Javier's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Aaron Judge: Season BA .323 → xBA vs arsenal .380 (+57 points), Season K% 25.0% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (-8.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Giancarlo Stanton: Season BA .287 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-29 points), Season K% 30.9% → Arsenal K% 21.1% (-9.8%)

For Astros vs Carlos Rodón:

The Astros lineup averages .272 this season but projects to .257 against Rodón's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jeremy Peña: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .281 (+31 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 18.6% (-3.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Christian Walker: Season BA .235 → xBA vs arsenal .220 (-15 points), Season K% 26.8% → Arsenal K% 32.2% (+5.4%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs Javier — down 4.6% from their 24.7% season average.
The Astros' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Rodón — slightly down 0.1% from their 20.4% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Aaron Judge (.323 → .380, +57 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Cristian Javier strikeout OVER - Yankees' K-rate drops to 20.1% vs this arsenal, a decrease from the season average.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Aaron Judge shows a significant batting advantage against Javier, making him a prop target.
Cristian Javier faces a tough matchup against a Yankees lineup that projects to hit him well.
Both teams show reduced strikeout rates against opposing arsenals, impacting strikeout prop considerations.
Umpire assignment is pending, leaving uncertainty in strikeout and walk prop expectations.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Astros game? A: Aaron Judge is the standout prop opportunity with a projected xBA of .380 against Javier's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making this aspect uncertain for now.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Astros game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/4, 07:40PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---