Game Time: 7/23, 07:07 PM
1. Brief Intro
The New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays in an exciting matchup at 7:07 PM. With the Yankees listed as -137 favorites and the Blue Jays as +113 underdogs, the betting market shows 70% of the money backing New York. This game features two strategic pitching matchups with distinct styles, which could play a crucial role in the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Chris Bassitt
Max Fried (NYY):
Fried utilizes a diverse array of pitches: Cutter (30% usage, 93.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.5 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 93.8 mph), Four-Seam (12% usage, 95.5 mph), Sweeper (11% usage, 80.9 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 84.6 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 85.1 mph). Fried's pitch mix makes him a tactical pitcher, relying heavily on movement and speed changes. The Blue Jays lineup, which averages .277 this season, is projected to hit .264 against Fried's arsenal.
Chris Bassitt (TOR):
Bassitt leans on a Sinker (41% usage, 91.4 mph), complemented by a Cutter (20% usage, 88.2 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 71.2 mph), among others. His arsenal makes him a pitch-mix artist, adept at inducing weak contact. The Yankees lineup, averaging .254 this season, projects to improve slightly to .274 against Bassitt's pitches.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Yankees vs. Chris Bassitt:
The Yankees lineup, which averages .254 this season, projects to .274 against Bassitt's arsenal. Trent Grisham stands out with a boost, from a season BA of .255 to an xBA of .304 (+49 points), while Paul Goldschmidt sees a decrease from .289 to .263 (-26 points).
For Blue Jays vs. Max Fried:
The Blue Jays lineup, averaging .278, projects to .264 against Fried. George Springer shows a significant increase from a season BA of .276 to an xBA of .319 (+43 points), whereas Davis Schneider's average drops drastically from .213 to .123 (-90 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs. Chris Bassitt — down 1.5% from their 21.6% season average, indicating potential contact play. The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 15.0% against Max Fried, a drop of 1.5% from their 16.5% season average, again suggesting a contact-oriented approach.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBD
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Trent Grisham (.255 → .304, +49 points) meets the criteria for a strong batting lean, as his xBA against Bassitt's arsenal is well above the .300 threshold with a significant boost.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team meets the criteria for strikeout props, as the projected K-rates are not significantly higher than 25% and do not show a substantial increase from their season averages.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Trent Grisham - his .304 xBA against Chris Bassitt's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +49 point boost.
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in terms of strikeout props for this matchup.
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