Game Time: 7/21, 07:07 PM
1. Brief Intro
The New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays in a much-anticipated matchup. This game features a fascinating pitching duel between Carlos Rodón for the Yankees and Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays. Betting odds are not available for this game, but with both teams boasting potent lineups, it promises to be an exciting contest.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón vs. Kevin Gausman
Carlos Rodón (NYY):
Rodón features a diverse arsenal with a notable emphasis on his Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 94.4 mph), followed by the Slider (31% usage, 85.8 mph), and Changeup (15% usage, 85.1 mph). He also mixes in a Sinker (9% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 80.0 mph), and a Cutter (0% usage, 91.1 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Rodón will look to overpower the Blue Jays, who have a season average of .276 with a projected .280 xBA against his arsenal.
Kevin Gausman (TOR):
Gausman relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.4 mph) and Splitter (38% usage, 85.2 mph), complemented by a Slider (8% usage, 82.8 mph) and an occasional Sinker (0% usage, 93.8 mph). This approach can be challenging for the Yankees, whose lineup averages .258 but projects a .223 xBA against Gausman’s arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman:
The Yankees' lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .223 against Gausman's arsenal. The player with the biggest increase in xBA is Jorbit Vivas: Season BA .173 → xBA .229 (+56 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 14.9% (-4.5%). Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has the biggest decrease: Season BA .352 → xBA .232 (-120 points), Season K% 26.0% → Arsenal K% 40.4% (+14.4%).
For Blue Jays vs. Carlos Rodón:
The Blue Jays' lineup averages .276 this season and projects to .281 against Rodón's arsenal. Joey Loperfido shows the biggest increase: Season BA .250 → xBA .322 (+72 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 14.0% (-8.5%). Nathan Lukes has the largest decrease: Season BA .271 → xBA .210 (-61 points), Season K% 12.8% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (+2.9%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 26.7% vs. Gausman — up 4.2% from their 22.5% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props. Conversely, the Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 16.6% vs. Rodón — slightly up 0.7% from their 15.9% season average, indicating a minimal change.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Among the batters, Joey Loperfido (.250 → .322, +72 points) is a lean candidate, as his xBA is above .300 with a significant increase of +72 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
With the Yankees' projected K-rate against Gausman at 26.7%, up 4.2% from their season average, there is a potential lean for strikeout props on the OVER for Kevin Gausman.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Joey Loperfido - his .322 xBA against Rodón's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +72 point boost. Additionally, our final lean would be Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - the Yankees' projected K-rate jumps to 26.7% vs. Gausman, up 4.2% from their 22.5% season average.
No further significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
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