Game Time: 7/20, 01:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The New York Yankees travel to face the Atlanta Braves in a highly anticipated matchup. With the Braves positioned as a -132 favorite and the Yankees as a +109 underdog, this game draws significant interest, especially with 66% of the money backing the Yankees. Both teams bring unique strengths to the field, promising an intriguing clash.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Marcus Stroman vs. Grant Holmes
Marcus Stroman (NYY):
Stroman delivers a diverse pitch arsenal: Sinker (39% usage, 89.7 mph), Slurve (22% usage, 82.0 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 89.0 mph), Splitter (9% usage, 83.3 mph), Slider (6% usage, 84.3 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 77.8 mph), and Four-Seam (5% usage, 89.4 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Stroman's strategy revolves around keeping batters guessing. The Braves lineup averages .243 this season with a projected xBA of .251 vs. Stroman's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the Yankees pitcher.
Grant Holmes (ATL):
Holmes features a Sinker (38% usage, 93.6 mph), Sweeper (20% usage, 81.7 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 88.0 mph), Slider (12% usage, 85.2 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 89.6 mph), and Four-Seam (7% usage, 93.2 mph). His power-heavy approach challenges the Yankees lineup, which averages .251 this season but projects to .259 vs. Holmes' arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .259 vs. Holmes' arsenal. Oswald Peraza sees a notable increase: Season BA .147 → xBA .212 (+65 points), Season K% 27.8% → Arsenal K% 26.3% (-1.5%). Jasson Domínguez faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .250 → xBA .207 (-43 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 29.3% (+6.8%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Braves lineup averages .244 this season and projects to .251 vs. Stroman's arsenal. Ozzie Albies stands out with a massive increase: Season BA .224 → xBA .384 (+160 points), Season K% 15.5% → Arsenal K% 11.6% (-3.9%). Jurickson Profar struggles with the biggest decrease: Season BA .254 → xBA .156 (-98 points), Season K% 20.3% → Arsenal K% 25.5% (+5.2%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 21.8% vs. Holmes — down 0.8% from their 22.6% season average, suggesting potential for more contact. Conversely, the Braves' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs. Stroman — up 2.2% from their 21.3% season average, indicating potential for increased strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment Not Announced
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter on the Yankees meets the criteria of xBA > 0.300 and boost > +20. For the Braves, Ozzie Albies stands out with an xBA of .384 and a boost of +160 points, making him a strong candidate for a batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Yankees nor the Braves meet the exact criteria for a strikeout prop lean, as the projected increases or decreases are not significant enough.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ozzie Albies - his .384 xBA against Stroman's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +160 point boost.
