Game Time: 7/18, 07:15 PM
1. Brief Intro
In this intriguing matchup, the New York Yankees head to Atlanta to face the Braves. While the betting odds are not available for this game, the pitching duel between Max Fried and Spencer Strider promises to be a key highlight. Both teams will look to exploit any potential weaknesses in the opposing pitchers' arsenals.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Spencer Strider
Max Fried (NYY):
Fried's diverse arsenal includes a Cutter (30% usage, 93.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.5 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 93.8 mph), Four-Seam (12% usage, 95.5 mph), Sweeper (11% usage, 80.9 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 84.6 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 85.1 mph). He is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a variety of speeds and movements. The Braves lineup has a season average of .238 and is projected to hit .239 against Fried's diverse arsenal.
Spencer Strider (ATL):
Strider is a power pitcher with a heavy reliance on his Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 95.6 mph) and Slider (37% usage, 84.1 mph). He also utilizes a Curveball (5% usage, 79.3 mph) and a Changeup (4% usage, 85.3 mph). The Yankees lineup, averaging .251 this season, is projected to hit .248 against Strider's power-centric approach.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .248 against Strider. Notably, Oswald Peraza shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .149 and an xBA of .225 (+76 points), while Aaron Judge sees the biggest decrease from .355 to .294 (-61 points).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Braves lineup averages .239 this season and projects to .239 against Fried. II Harris shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .210 and an xBA of .272 (+62 points), while Jurickson Profar has the biggest decrease from .270 to .172 (-98 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 26.5% against Strider — up 2.7% from their 23.9% season average, highlighting a potential strikeout prop value. Conversely, the Braves' projected K-rate is 22.4% against Fried, marginally down by 0.04% from their season average, suggesting potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter meets the criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a boost > +20 points. Therefore, there are no batting leans based on individual player projections.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Yankees' projected K-rate of 26.5% against Strider does not meet the criteria for a lean, as it is not above 25% with a significant increase greater than 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Therefore, no final lean is suggested based on the data available.
