Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Twins vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 27)
Last updated: September 27, 2025
Game Time: 9/27, 06:05PM
Brief Intro
Tonight's matchup features the Minnesota Twins visiting the Philadelphia Phillies. With Philadelphia positioned as a commanding −206 favorite on DraftKings, a significant 95% of the money is backing the Phillies to prevail over the Twins, who stand as +167 underdogs.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Mick Abel vs Ranger Suárez
Mick Abel (MIN):
Mick Abel brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with the following pitch types and usage: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 96.3 mph), Curveball (23% usage, 82.6 mph), Sinker (12% usage, 95.3 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.0 mph), and Sweeper (2% usage, 84.6 mph). Abel is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a strong reliance on his fastball, complemented by a variety of secondary pitches to keep hitters off-balance. The Phillies lineup, however, averages .266 this season with a projected xBA of .257 against Abel's arsenal.
Ranger Suárez (PHI):
Ranger Suárez counters with a pitch mix that emphasizes control and movement: Sinker (29% usage, 90.1 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 79.5 mph), Cutter (18% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 73.9 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage, 91.3 mph), and Slider (4% usage, 79.7 mph). The Twins lineup, averaging .239 this season, is projected to hit .258 against Suárez’s offerings, suggesting a slight offensive edge against his pitch mix.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Twins vs Suárez:
- The Twins lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .258 against Suárez's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Kody Clemens: Season BA .214 → xBA vs arsenal .308 (+94 points), Season K% 23.3% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (-2.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Austin Martin: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .251 (-33 points), Season K% 16.4% → Arsenal K% 14.2% (-2.2%)
For the Phillies vs Abel:
- The Phillies lineup averages .266 this season with an xBA of .258 against Abel's arsenal.
- Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader: Season BA .280 → xBA vs arsenal .209 (-71 points), Season K% 26.8% → Arsenal K% 29.0% (+2.2%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Twins' projected K-rate is 23.4% vs Suárez — up 0.8% from their 22.5% season average.
- The Phillies' projected K-rate is 24.4% vs Abel — up 2.3% from their 22.1% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Carson McCusker (.250 → .329, +79 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No strikeout props meet the criteria for significant statistical edges in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Carson McCusker shows a promising batting edge against Suárez's arsenal.
- No standout opportunities for strikeout props are present based on current data.
- Umpire assignment is unknown, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, while pitcher matchups suggest offensive opportunities, betting leans are limited.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the MIN vs PHI game? A: Carson McCusker meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected increase against Suárez.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to the umpire's impact.
Q: What time is the MIN vs PHI game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/27, 06:05PM.
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