Game Time: 7/18, 08:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Minnesota Twins face off against the Colorado Rockies in what promises to be an exciting matchup. With the Twins entering as the favorites, DraftKings has them listed at -172, while the Rockies are +140 underdogs. Notably, a staggering 94% of the money is backing the Twins, highlighting the betting public's confidence in Minnesota.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Chris Paddack vs. Kyle Freeland
Chris Paddack (MIN):
Chris Paddack brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.7 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 84.2 mph), Slider (12% usage, 85.6 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 78.0 mph), Cutter (4% usage, 89.0 mph), and Sinker (2% usage, 93.7 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy style, Paddack's Four-Seam Fastball is his bread and butter. The Rockies lineup averages .256 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against Paddack's repertoire, suggesting they might find some success against his pitches.
Kyle Freeland (COL):
Kyle Freeland features: Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 92.0 mph), Curveball (23% usage, 83.2 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.9 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 84.0 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 91.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.7 mph). Freeland uses a balanced pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. The Twins lineup, which averages .254 this season, projects to a slightly lower .245 xBA against Freeland's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Twins lineup averages .254 this season but is projected to hit .245 against Freeland's pitches. Royce Lewis emerges as a standout performer, with his season BA of .216 jumping to a projected .301 xBA against Freeland's arsenal (+85 points), while his strikeout rate remains stable. Conversely, Harrison Bader sees a notable drop, with his season BA of .254 dropping to .209, coupled with an increase in strikeouts.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Rockies lineup, averaging .249 this season, projects to slightly improve to a .256 xBA against Paddack. Brenton Doyle shows promise with a season BA of .202 rising to .267 against Paddack (+65 points), indicating potential upside. Meanwhile, Tyler Freeman's BA slightly decreases, but he benefits from a reduced strikeout rate.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Twins' projected K-rate is 21.2% vs. Freeland — up 1.9% from their 19.3% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts. This may present opportunities for Freeland's strikeout props. On the other hand, the Rockies' projected K-rate is 25.3% vs. Paddack — down 1.7% from their 26.9% season average, indicating potential contact play opportunities.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Royce Lewis, with a projected xBA of .301 and a +85 point boost, surpasses our criteria of xBA > .300 and boost > +20. Thus, he presents a potential betting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No team meets the criteria of a K-rate > 25% with an increase > 4%, so no leans on strikeout props for this matchup.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Royce Lewis - his .301 xBA against Freeland's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +85 point boost, indicating a strong potential for hitting success in this matchup.
