September 9, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Tigers vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 09)

Last updated: September 09, 2025

Game Time: 9/9, 07:05PM

Today's Setup

The Detroit Tigers travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees in a matchup with intriguing betting angles. DraftKings lists the Yankees as a -158 favorite, while the Tigers come in as +129 underdogs. Notably, 68% of the betting money is favoring the Yankees, hinting at public confidence in the home team.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Will Warren

Casey Mize (DET):

Casey Mize brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with the following pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 94.6 mph), Splitter (24% usage, 88.7 mph), Slurve (16% usage, 83.6 mph), Slider (14% usage, 88.3 mph), and Sinker (12% usage, 94.8 mph). Mize is a pitch-mix artist, using his varied repertoire to keep hitters off balance. The Yankees lineup has averaged .254 this season but projects a lower xBA of .233 against Mize’s offerings.

Will Warren (NYY):

Will Warren counters with his own set of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 93.3 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 93.2 mph), Sweeper (21% usage, 82.6 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 86.9 mph), and Curveball (7% usage, 79.9 mph). Warren leans on his fastball and sinker to set the tone, complemented by breaking and off-speed pitches. The Tigers lineup, hitting .252 on the season, projects to an improved xBA of .266 against Warren’s arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For DET vs Will Warren: The Tigers lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .266 against Warren's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Colt Keith: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .295 (+41 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (-1.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Riley Greene: Season BA .267 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (-20 points), Season K% 30.7% → Arsenal K% 30.8% (+0.1%)

For NYY vs Casey Mize: The Yankees lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .233 against Mize's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: No significant increases in xBA
Biggest Decrease: Aaron Judge: Season BA .321 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (-45 points), Season K% 24.6% → Arsenal K% 29.9% (+5.3%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Tigers' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs Will Warren — down 0.3% from their 23.5% season average.
The Yankees' projected K-rate is 26.5% vs Casey Mize — up 1.7% from their 24.8% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Dillon Dingler (.276 → .301, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Will Warren strikeout OVER - Tigers' K-rate jumps to 23.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Player Advantages: Dillon Dingler shows a compelling batting average increase against Warren’s pitches, making him a strong candidate for hitting props.
Pitcher Prop Opportunities: Will Warren’s higher expected strikeout rate against the Tigers could offer value on strikeout props.
Umpire Impact: Without designated umpire data, prop betting may carry additional risk due to unknown umpire tendencies.
Overall Betting Recommendation: Focus on select player and pitcher props where statistical edges are evident, notably Dillon Dingler's improved xBA and Warren's strikeout potential.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Tigers vs Yankees game? A: Dillon Dingler shows promising potential with a noticeable increase in expected batting average against Warren's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Tigers vs Yankees game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/9, 07:05PM.

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