Invisible Insider
July 23, 2025
Game Preview
Tigers at Pirates MLB Betting Preview

Game Time: 7/23, 12:35 PM

1. Brief Intro

As the Detroit Tigers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, betting enthusiasts are eyeing this intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Tigers as a -158 favorite, while the Pirates stand as +129 underdogs, with a significant 79% of the money backing Detroit. This game offers plenty of interest from a betting perspective, particularly in the pitcher-batter matchups.

2. Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs. Bailey Falter
Troy Melton (DET):

Troy Melton presents a mixed arsenal, which offers versatility in his approach against the Pirates' lineup. However, the dataset lacks specific pitch types, usage percentages, and velocities, preventing a detailed breakdown. The Pirates lineup averages .250 this season, with a projected xBA of .250 against Melton's undefined arsenal.

Bailey Falter (PIT):

Bailey Falter relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 92.1 mph), complemented by a Slider (17% usage, 85.3 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.0 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 77.6 mph), and Splitter (8% usage, 85.4 mph). The Tigers lineup has a season average of .255 but projects to a slightly lower .252 against Falter's diverse pitch mix.

3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:

The Tigers lineup, averaging .255 this season, sees a slight dip to a projected .252 against Bailey Falter's arsenal. Spencer Torkelson shows the biggest increase in batting average, improving from a season BA of .233 to an arsenal xBA of .274 (+41 points), with a decrease in strikeout rate from 24.1% to 21.3% (-2.8%). Meanwhile, Riley Greene faces a significant challenge, dropping from a season BA of .277 to an xBA of .234 (-43 points) while seeing a modest increase in strikeouts from 32.0% to 33.4% (+1.4%).

For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:

Data on specific home key performers against Troy Melton's arsenal is not available, leaving a gap in detailed analysis for the Pirates' lineup.

4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Tigers' projected K-rate rises to 25.8% versus Bailey Falter, which is a noticeable increase from their season average of 21.5% (+4.3%). This suggests a potential value in Falter's strikeout props. Conversely, the Pirates maintain a steady K-rate of 22.5% against Troy Melton, unchanged from their season average, indicating no significant edge in strikeout props.

5. Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without umpire data, bettors may find it challenging to predict strikeout or walk tendencies accurately, adding an element of uncertainty to the matchup.

6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Despite Spencer Torkelson's improvement to a .274 xBA versus Bailey Falter, it remains below the .300 threshold for a betting lean. No Tigers batters meet the criteria for a significant batting advantage based on the arsenal comparison.

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Tigers' K-rate increase to 25.8% against Falter meets the criteria for leaning towards the strikeout OVER, as it exceeds both the 25% threshold and shows a +4.3% increase. This presents a viable prop opportunity on Falter's strikeouts.

STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Bailey Falter's strikeout OVER - the Tigers' projected K-rate jumps to 25.8% against Falter, up 4.3% from their 21.5% season average. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for batting props in this matchup.

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