Game Time: 8/3, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Detroit Tigers will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:10 PM. According to DraftKings, the Phillies enter the contest as a -193 favorite, while the Tigers are +157 underdogs, with 62% of the betting money backing the Phillies. This matchup is set to feature Charlie Morton on the mound for the Tigers against Cristopher Sánchez for the Phillies.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton vs Cristopher Sánchez
Charlie Morton (DET):
Morton employs a diverse pitch mix featuring a Curveball (38% usage, 81.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 94.2 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 94.0 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.5 mph), and Cutter (8% usage, 88.2 mph). This makes him a pitch-mix artist who relies on variety to disrupt hitters. The Phillies lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .252 against Morton's arsenal.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):
Sánchez relies heavily on his Sinker (47% usage, 95.3 mph) and Changeup (37% usage, 86.1 mph), complemented by a Slider (16% usage, 85.3 mph), making him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Tigers lineup, averaging .249 this season, projects to a .257 xBA against Sánchez's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Tigers lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .257 vs Sánchez's arsenal. Gleyber Torres shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .277 → xBA vs arsenal .311 (+34 points), and Dillon Dingler follows with .275 → .335 (+60 points). Riley Greene has the biggest decrease at .271 → .250 (-21 points).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Phillies lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .253 vs Morton's arsenal. Bryce Harper shows a significant increase with a season BA of .269 → xBA vs arsenal .307 (+38 points). J.T. Realmuto has a notable decrease at .269 → .244 (-25 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Tigers' projected K-rate is 19.9% vs Sánchez — down 3.3% from their 23.3% season average, indicating a potential contact play. Conversely, the Phillies' projected K-rate is 25.1% vs Morton — up 3.0% from their 22.1% season average, suggesting potential K prop value.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Gleyber Torres (.277 → .311, +34 points) and Dillon Dingler (.275 → .335, +60 points) both exceed the .300 threshold with significant boosts, making them potential leans.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant increase for the Tigers, but the Phillies' projected K-rate of 25.1% vs Morton is close to the criteria with an increase of 3.0%. However, it does not meet the exact criteria.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Dillon Dingler - his .335 xBA against Sánchez's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +60 point boost. No significant strikeout prop leans meet our threshold for this matchup.
