Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Sox vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)
Last updated: September 23, 2025Game Time: 9/23, 07:05PM
Game Preview
The Chicago White Sox head to Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees in a prime-time matchup. With the Yankees favored at -252 and the White Sox as +201 underdogs, 91% of the betting money is backing New York. This game is expected to be a showcase of pitching, as both teams feature intriguing mound matchups.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Shane Smith vs Luis Gil
Shane Smith (CWS):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 95.6 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 90.0 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 82.0 mph), Slider (12% usage, 89.5 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 95.6 mph), Sweeper (0% usage, 88.1 mph)
Shane Smith is a velocity-heavy pitcher focusing primarily on his Four-Seam Fastball. The Yankees lineup has been strong this season, averaging .252, but they project to hit .247 against Smith’s arsenal.
Luis Gil (NYY):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (35% usage, 87.5 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 81.8 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph)
Luis Gil brings a balanced mix of pitches to the mound, relying heavily on his Slider and Four-Seam Fastball. The White Sox lineup, averaging .240 this season, projects to struggle more with a .228 average against Gil’s repertoire.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For CWS vs Luis Gil:
- The White Sox lineup averages .240 this season but projects to .228 against Gil’s arsenal.
- Colson Montgomery: Season BA .221 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (+29 points), Season K% 29.5% → Arsenal K% 28.9% (-0.6%)
- Kyle Teel: Season BA .274 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-61 points), Season K% 25.5% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (+0.7%)
For NYY vs Shane Smith:
- The Yankees lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .247 against Smith’s arsenal.
- Ryan McMahon: Season BA .214 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (+36 points), Season K% 31.8% → Arsenal K% 31.7% (-0.1%)
- Ben Rice: Season BA .286 → xBA vs arsenal .218 (-68 points), Season K% 22.7% → Arsenal K% 34.1% (+11.4%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The White Sox's projected K-rate is 26.5% vs Luis Gil — up 2.8% from their 23.7% season average, indicating potential K prop value.
- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 27.6% vs Shane Smith — up 2.2% from their 25.4% season average, suggesting increased strikeout risks.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Colson Montgomery (.221 → .250, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Luis Gil strikeout OVER - White Sox's K-rate jumps to 26.5% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Colson Montgomery stands out with a significant batting advantage against Luis Gil’s arsenal.
- Luis Gil presents a K prop opportunity with the White Sox’s increased strikeout projection.
- Unknown umpire assignment adds volatility to the betting landscape.
- With no umpire data, batter and pitcher props should be approached cautiously.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the CWS vs NYY game? A: Colson Montgomery meets our strict betting criteria with a significant batting advantage.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to the strikeout and walk prop analysis.
Q: What time is the CWS vs NYY game? A: 9/23, 07:05PM
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