September 20, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Sox vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 20)

Last updated: September 20, 2025

Game Time: 9/20, 07:05PM

Brief Intro

The Boston Red Sox are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, a matchup that promises intriguing pitcher-batter duels. While betting odds are not available for this game, insights into pitching matchups and lineup advantages provide valuable angles for bettors.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs Adrian Houser

Kyle Harrison (BOS):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (62% usage, 95.1 mph), Slurve (27% usage, 82.9 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 86.8 mph), Cutter (2% usage, 87.6 mph), Sinker (0% usage, 94.8 mph)
Style: Harrison is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on his fastball and slurve to overpower hitters.
Matchup Insight: The Rays lineup averages .237 this season, projecting a slightly better xBA of .248 against Harrison's arsenal.

Adrian Houser (TB):

Arsenal: Sinker (46% usage, 94.4 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.8 mph), Slider (14% usage, 87.8 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 81.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage, 95.2 mph)
Style: Houser is a pitch-mix artist who uses a balanced mix of sinkers and off-speed pitches to keep batters guessing.
Matchup Insight: The Red Sox lineup averages .269 this season, with a projected xBA of .263 against Houser's diverse offerings.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

Boston vs Adrian Houser:

- Season Avg: .269 vs Projected: .263 - Biggest Increase: Ceddanne Rafaela: Season BA .243 → xBA .266 (+23 points), Season K% 19.96% → Arsenal K% 15.1% (-4.86%) - Biggest Decrease: Romy Gonzalez: Season BA .298 → xBA .271 (-27 points), Season K% 23.81% → Arsenal K% 15.0% (-8.81%)

Tampa Bay vs Kyle Harrison:

- Season Avg: .237 vs Projected: .248 - Biggest Increase: Chandler Simpson: Season BA .300 → xBA .336 (+35 points), Season K% 10.17% → Arsenal K% 3.6% (-6.57%) - Biggest Decrease: Tristan Gray: Season BA .234 → xBA .184 (-50 points), Season K% 22.54% → Arsenal K% 9.0% (-13.54%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Boston's projected K-rate: 17.36% vs Houser — down 4.00% from their 21.35% season average, indicating potential for contact.
Tampa Bay's projected K-rate: 21.5% vs Harrison — down 2.96% from their 24.46% season average, suggesting slightly improved contact rates.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Chandler Simpson (.300 → .336, +35 points) meets betting lean criteria! Expect strong performance against Harrison's fastball-heavy approach.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Player Advantages: Chandler Simpson and Ceddanne Rafaela have favorable matchups with significant xBA increases.
Pitcher Prop Opportunities: Lower projected K-rates for both lineups suggest potential for contact, but no standout strikeout props.
Umpire Impact: With no umpire assignment, caution is advised for prop volatility.
Betting Recommendation: Focus on Chandler Simpson for player props due to his advantageous matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the BOS vs TB game? A: Chandler Simpson shows a strong batting advantage against Kyle Harrison, making him a top prop candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, creating uncertainty in prop predictions.

Q: What time is the BOS vs TB game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/20 at 07:05PM.

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