Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Sox vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 19)
Last updated: September 19, 2025Game Time: 9/19, 07:35PM
Game Preview
The Boston Red Sox take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a highly anticipated matchup. Currently, DraftKings lists the Red Sox as a -132 favorite, while the Rays are +108 underdogs. With 95% of the money backing the Red Sox, bettors are clearly favoring Boston's chances in this bout.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Drew Rasmussen
Garrett Crochet (BOS):
Garrett Crochet brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with the following pitch types: Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 96.4 mph), Cutter (28% usage, 90.8 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 82.6 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 95.9 mph), and Changeup (4% usage, 87.8 mph). Crochet relies on high velocity and a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Rays lineup has averaged .239 this season and projects an xBA of .248 against Crochet's arsenal.
Drew Rasmussen (TB):
Drew Rasmussen counters with a crafty mix: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.8 mph), Cutter (31% usage, 90.3 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 95.4 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 84.6 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 89.4 mph). Known for his pitch-mix artistry, Rasmussen faces a Red Sox lineup that averages .265 on the season but projects a similar .265 xBA against his pitch selection.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Boston vs Drew Rasmussen:
- The Red Sox lineup averages .265 this season and projects a .265 xBA against Rasmussen’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jarren Duran shows a promising increase, with his season BA of .262 projected to rise to an xBA of .301 against Rasmussen (+39 points), and a decrease in K% from 23.7% to 19.5% (-4.2%).
- Biggest Decrease: Romy Gonzalez's season BA of .301 is projected to drop to an xBA of .278 against Rasmussen (-23 points), with a slight K% decrease from 24.3% to 22.7% (-1.6%).
For Tampa Bay vs Garrett Crochet:
- The Rays lineup averages .239 this season but projects a slightly improved .248 xBA against Crochet's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Chandler Simpson leads the way with a season BA of .296 expected to jump to an xBA of .352 against Crochet (+56 points), with his K% decreasing from 10.3% to 5.8% (-4.5%).
- Biggest Decrease: Everson Pereira’s BA sees a minor drop from .143 to an xBA of .131 (-12 points), while his K% rises significantly from 35.9% to 45.7% (+9.8%).
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 16.9% vs Rasmussen — down 5.0% from their 21.9% season average. This indicates a potential contact play rather than a strikeout prop.
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 23.7% vs Crochet — down 1.2% from their 24.8% season average. This suggests less volatility in strikeouts than usual.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jarren Duran (.262 → .301, +39 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities as both teams project lower K-rates against their respective pitchers.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jarren Duran is the standout for a batting prop with a significant increase in xBA.
- No viable strikeout prop opportunities due to decreased projected K-rates.
- Umpire assignment uncertainty increases volatility in prop bets.
- Bettors are heavily favoring the Red Sox, possibly due to their consistent lineup performance.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the BOS vs TB game? A: Jarren Duran stands out with a significant increase in xBA, making him a strong prop option.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to the game's prop dynamics.
Q: What time is the BOS vs TB game? A: The game starts at 9/19, 07:35PM.
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