Game Time: 7/18, 06:40PM
1. Brief Intro
The Chicago White Sox travel to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a matchup that sees the Pirates favored, with DraftKings listing them as a -172 favorite against a +140 line for the White Sox. With 74% of the money backing the Pirates, this game presents intriguing betting angles, particularly given the pitching matchup and lineup tendencies.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Jonathan Cannon vs. Bailey Falter
Jonathan Cannon (CWS):
Jonathan Cannon offers a diverse arsenal: Cutter (27% usage, 89.3 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 85.4 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 92.8 mph), Four-Seam (16% usage, 93.4 mph), and Sweeper (14% usage, 81.3 mph). Cannon's versatility makes him a pitch-mix artist. The Pirates lineup has hit .249 this season, projecting a .268 xBA against Cannon's offerings, indicating a potential challenge for the right-handed pitcher.
Bailey Falter (PIT):
Bailey Falter relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 92.1 mph), supplemented by a Slider (17% usage, 85.4 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.0 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 77.6 mph), and Splitter (8% usage, 85.4 mph). The White Sox lineup, averaging .237 this season, projects a .257 xBA against Falter's arsenal, suggesting potential vulnerability.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The White Sox lineup averages .237 this season but projects to .257 against Bailey Falter's arsenal. Notably, Colson Montgomery shows a significant boost: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .402 (+152 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 8.3% (-14.2%). Meanwhile, Edgar Quero sees a decline: Season BA .269 → xBA vs. arsenal .222 (-47 points), Season K% 18.1% → Arsenal K% 15.4% (-2.7%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Pirates lineup averages .249 this season and projects to .268 against Jonathan Cannon's arsenal. Bryan Reynolds experiences a significant increase: Season BA .225 → xBA vs. arsenal .310 (+85 points), Season K% 27.2% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (-9.7%). Conversely, Oneil Cruz faces a decrease: Season BA .284 → xBA vs. arsenal .231 (-53 points), Season K% 24.3% → Arsenal K% 28.4% (+4.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The White Sox's projected K-rate is 21.6% vs. Bailey Falter — up 0.3% from their 21.3% season average, indicating minimal change. The Pirates' projected K-rate is 20.5% vs. Jonathan Cannon — down 2.2% from their 22.7% season average, suggesting reduced strikeout risk and potential for increased contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Colson Montgomery (.250 → .402, +152 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Bryan Reynolds (.225 → .310, +85 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No other batters meet the criteria of xBA > 0.300 AND boost > +20 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant K-rate criteria met as neither team's projected K-rate implies an actionable increase or decrease.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Colson Montgomery - his .402 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +152 point boost. Additionally, Bryan Reynolds presents a strong case with a .310 xBA, also meeting our criteria.
