Invisible Insider
July 23, 2025
Game Preview
Sox at Phillies MLB Betting Preview

Game Time: 7/23, 07:05 PM

1. Brief Intro

In this intriguing MLB matchup, the Boston Red Sox take on the Philadelphia Phillies. According to DraftKings, the Phillies are favored at -156, while the Red Sox sit as +128 underdogs. With 54% of the betting money backing the Phillies, this game promises an exciting clash of pitching strategies and lineup dynamics.

2. Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Jesús Luzardo
Lucas Giolito (BOS):

Giolito brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 93.6 mph), Slider (24% usage, 86.6 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 82.2 mph), and a Curveball (3% usage, 79.3 mph). Known for a velocity-heavy approach, Giolito's style presents a challenge to the Phillies' lineup, which averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against his pitches.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI):

Luzardo counters with his own blend of pitches: a Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage, 96.5 mph), Sweeper (26% usage, 85.9 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 87.9 mph), Slider (11% usage, 86.6 mph), and Sinker (9% usage, 95.8 mph). The Red Sox lineup, averaging .273 this season, is projected to hit .246 against Luzardo's varied arsenal.

3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:

The Red Sox, with a season average of .273, project a .246 xBA against Luzardo. The biggest increase in expected batting average comes from Carlos Narváez, who jumps from a season BA of .250 to an xBA of .295 (+45 points), with a K% decrease from 22.5% to 16.2% (-6.3%). On the downside, Abraham Toro sees the largest decrease, dropping from a .280 season BA to a .182 xBA (-98 points), with an increase in K% from 14.8% to 29.4% (+14.6%).

For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:

The Phillies lineup, averaging .254, projects a .264 xBA against Giolito. Otto Kemp presents the largest boost, moving from a .253 season BA to an xBA of .318 (+65 points), with a slight K% increase from 26.4% to 27.3% (+0.9%). Conversely, Trea Turner experiences the biggest drop, from a .286 season BA to a .251 xBA (-35 points), with an increase in K% from 16.4% to 19.1% (+2.7%).

4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 25.86% against Luzardo, up 3.56% from their 22.29% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props. Meanwhile, the Phillies' projected K-rate against Giolito is 22.84%, a modest 1.05% increase from their 21.79% season average, indicating a lesser impact on strikeout prop opportunities.

5. Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter from either team meets the criteria of an xBA above .300 with a boost greater than +20 points. Therefore, no individual batter lean is suggested.

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Red Sox's strikeout rate projects at 25.86% against Luzardo, which is above the 25% threshold but does not meet the +4% increase requirement for an over lean. The Phillies do not meet the criteria for a strikeout prop lean either.

STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Therefore, we recommend avoiding any batter or strikeout prop bets based on the current data.

Want More Insider Analysis + Best Bets?

Unlock our top picks and in-depth breakdowns every day — all inside the Insider Bets dashboard for just $1.
Click below to get started!
Latest Posts
Get Better Bets Now!
OUR BEST DAILY BETS FOR $1
Share
All-Tools
Bankroll BuilderParlay CalculatorCustom SystemsBetting GuideInsider StatsFree Money