Game Time: 7/22, 06:45 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Boston Red Sox travel to Philadelphia to face off against the Phillies in this intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Phillies as a -205 favorite, while the Red Sox are positioned as +167 underdogs, with 62% of the betting money backing the Phillies. This game features a pitching duel that could set the tone for a strategic betting opportunity.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Richard Fitts vs. Cristopher Sánchez
Richard Fitts (BOS):
Fitts brings a diverse arsenal featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 95.8 mph), Slider (29% usage, 87.8 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 85.0 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 83.0 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 94.6 mph), and Changeup (2% usage, 89.4 mph). This mix categorizes him as a pitch-mix artist with a blend of velocity and movement. The Phillies lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against Fitts' offerings, suggesting a slight edge to Philadelphia's hitters.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):
Sánchez relies heavily on his Sinker (47% usage, 95.3 mph), complemented by a Changeup (36% usage, 86.1 mph) and a Slider (16% usage, 85.3 mph). His pitch selection emphasizes velocity and movement, ideal for ground ball inducement. The Red Sox lineup averages .260 but projects slightly higher at .264 against Sánchez's arsenal, indicating a competitive matchup.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Red Sox lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .263 against Sánchez's repertoire. Trevor Story emerges as a standout performer, with a significant increase: Season BA .252 → xBA vs. arsenal .328 (+76 points), Season K% 27.8% → Arsenal K% 18.1% (-9.7%). Conversely, Romy Gonzalez shows the biggest drop: Season BA .307 → xBA vs. arsenal .275 (-32 points).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Phillies average .254 this season, with a slight increase to a projected .256 against Fitts. Otto Kemp shows a moderate increase: Season BA .253 → xBA vs. arsenal .281 (+28 points). However, Trea Turner sees a decrease: Season BA .286 → xBA vs. arsenal .266 (-20 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 20.73% vs. Sánchez — down 1.61% from their 22.34% season average, suggesting potential contact play opportunities. Meanwhile, the Phillies' projected K-rate rises to 23.67% vs. Fitts — up 1.87% from their 21.79% season average, highlighting a moderate increase in strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Trevor Story’s projected xBA of .328 against Sánchez provides a strong betting lean due to its significant boost over his season average, meeting both our .300 threshold and the +20 point boost criteria. No other batter from either team surpasses the .300 xBA mark with a sufficient boost.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Red Sox nor the Phillies meet the criteria for a strikeout prop lean, as neither team’s projected K-rate exceeds 25% with a sufficient increase.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Trevor Story - his .328 xBA against Sánchez's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +76 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
