Game Time: 7/20, 02:20PM
1. Brief Intro
Get ready for an exciting matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox enter the game as -143 favorites, while the Cubs are +118 underdogs, with 61% of the betting money backing Boston. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and lineup dynamics that could sway the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs. Cade Horton
Garrett Crochet (BOS):
Garrett Crochet brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Sinker (13% usage, 95.5 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 82.5 mph), and Changeup (5% usage, 88.3 mph). Crochet is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on his fastball to set the tone. The Cubs lineup is averaging .261 this season and projects a .281 xBA against Crochet's offerings, indicating a potential challenge for the southpaw.
Cade Horton (CHC):
Cade Horton counters with his own variety, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 95.7 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 84.0 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 87.7 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 83.9 mph), Sinker (4% usage, 95.4 mph), and a rarely used Slider (1% usage, 83.9 mph). The Red Sox lineup has a season average of .260 but projects to a lower .230 xBA against Horton's arsenal, hinting at potential dominance for the Cubs right-hander.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Red Sox lineup averages .260 this season but projects to a .230 xBA against Cade Horton's arsenal. Jarren Duran sees the biggest decrease in xBA, moving from a season average of .259 to .216, a 43-point drop, while increasing his strikeout rate from 23.7% to 28.9%, a 5.2% increase.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Cubs lineup averages .262 this season and projects to a .281 xBA against Garrett Crochet's arsenal. Dansby Swanson posts the largest increase, moving from a seasonal .249 to a .319 xBA, a 70-point boost, and reducing his strikeout rate from 26.0% to 22.7%, a 3.3% decrease.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 27.4% vs. Cade Horton — up 4.1% from their 23.3% season average. This suggests potential value in strikeout props for Horton. Meanwhile, the Cubs see a projected K-rate of 19.2% vs. Garrett Crochet, down 0.7% from their 19.8% season average, indicating a potential contact play.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Dansby Swanson (.249 → .319, +70 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No other batter meets the criteria for a batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Red Sox's projected K-rate of 27.4% vs. Cade Horton, up 4.1% from their 23.3% season average, suggests a potential lean on Cade Horton strikeout OVER.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Dansby Swanson - his .319 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +70 point boost. Additionally, our final lean would be Cade Horton strikeout OVER - Boston's projected K-rate jumps to 27.4% vs. Horton, up 4.1% from their 23.3% season average.
