August 31, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

SD vs MIN: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 31)

Last updated: August 31, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Brief Intro

The San Diego Padres travel to Minnesota to face the Twins in a matchup that pits two intriguing pitching styles against competitive lineups. With betting odds not available for this game, the focus shifts to individual pitcher-batter matchups and potential prop opportunities.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: David Morgan vs Joe Ryan

David Morgan (SD):

David Morgan is a power pitcher with a diverse arsenal comprising of:

Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 97.8 mph)
Curveball (22% usage, 82.9 mph)
Slider (20% usage, 87.9 mph)
Sinker (20% usage, 96.9 mph)
Changeup (0% usage, 91.9 mph)

Morgan's high velocity and pitch variety aim to overpower hitters. However, the Twins lineup has shown resilience this season, averaging .253 with a projected xBA of .240 against Morgan's arsenal.

Joe Ryan (MIN):

Joe Ryan counters with a balanced mix:

Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.1 mph)
Changeup (25% usage, 86.7 mph)
Slider (18% usage, 89.0 mph)
Cutter (7% usage, 91.5 mph)
Curveball (3% usage, 80.8 mph)
Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph)

Ryan's strategic variety poses challenges to hitters, yet the Padres lineup, averaging .267 this season, projects a slight dip to .263 against his pitches.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Padres vs Joe Ryan: The Padres lineup averages .267 this season but projects slightly lower at .263 versus Ryan's arsenal.

Jake Cronenworth: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .217 (-33 points), Season K% 21.2% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+1.9%)

For the Twins vs David Morgan: The Twins lineup averages .253 this season, projecting to .240 against Morgan's arsenal.

Royce Lewis: Season BA .225 → xBA vs arsenal .269 (+44 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (-1.4%)
Austin Martin: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .218 (-66 points), Season K% 15.6% → Arsenal K% 14.7% (-0.9%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.5% vs Ryan — up 1.2% from their 17.3% season average.
The Twins' projected K-rate is 20.7% vs Morgan — up 1.1% from their 19.6% season average.

Higher K-rates suggest potential strikeout prop values.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Royce Lewis (.225 → .269, +44 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: None of the pitchers meet the criteria for strikeout prop alerts as their increase isn't significant enough.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Royce Lewis shows a notable advantage against Morgan's arsenal, making him a solid prop candidate.
No significant strikeout prop opportunities due to marginal K-rate increases.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, focus on Royce Lewis for a batting prop if looking for a potential edge.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SD vs MIN game? A: Royce Lewis stands out with a significant projected increase against Morgan's pitching.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the SD vs MIN game? A: Game time is TBD.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---