Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Royals vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)
Last updated: September 13, 2025
Game Time: 9/13, 06:05PM
Matchup Setup
The Kansas City Royals face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Phillies as a -150 favorite against the Royals, who are +123 underdogs. Notably, 91% of the betting money is backing the Phillies, indicating strong public confidence in the home team's chances.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Bergert vs Taijuan Walker
Ryan Bergert (KC):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 93.4 mph), Slider (25% usage, 87.4 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.6 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 87.5 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 92.4 mph), Curveball (0% usage, 82.3 mph)
- Interpretation: Bergert is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse mix, relying heavily on his fastball and slider.
- Matchup Insight: The Phillies lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .261 against Bergert's arsenal.
Taijuan Walker (PHI):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage, 94.0 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 90.6 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 93.8 mph), Slider (15% usage, 87.5 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 77.5 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 80.8 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.8 mph)
- Interpretation: Walker is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a balanced array of pitches without overly relying on any single one.
- Matchup Insight: The Royals lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .257 against Walker's arsenal.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For KC vs Taijuan Walker:
- The Royals lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .257 against Walker's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Randal Grichuk: Season BA .224 → xBA vs arsenal .268 (+44 points), Season K% 21.0% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (-0.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Maikel Garcia: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .208 (-82 points), Season K% 12.6% → Arsenal K% 35.6% (+23.0%)
For PHI vs Ryan Bergert:
- The Phillies lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .261 against Bergert's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Max Kepler: Season BA .221 → xBA vs arsenal .263 (+42 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 15.5% (-2.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader: Season BA .282 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (-50 points), Season K% 26.6% → Arsenal K% 31.9% (+5.3%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Royals' Projected K-rate: 20.7% vs Walker — up 2.6% from their 18.2% season average.
- Phillies' Projected K-rate: 24.9% vs Bergert — up 1.6% from their 23.3% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Randal Grichuk shows a significant increase in batting average potential against Walker's arsenal.
- No standout strikeout prop opportunities as both teams' K-rate increases are below the threshold.
- Umpire assignment is unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to the game's proceedings.
- Consider a batting prop on Grichuk given his favorable matchup statistics.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Royals vs Phillies game? A: Randal Grichuk meets our strict betting criteria with his projected increase against Walker's arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding unpredictability to prop betting.
Q: What time is the Royals vs Phillies game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/13, 06:05PM.
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