Game Time: 7/13, 01:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Colorado Rockies are set to face off against the Cincinnati Reds, with the game scheduled for 1:40 PM. According to DraftKings, the Reds are heavy favorites with a -247 line, while the Rockies come in as +198 underdogs. Notably, 83% of the betting money is backing the Reds, indicating strong public confidence in Cincinnati.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Austin Gomber vs. Nick Martinez
Austin Gomber (COL):
Gomber brings a varied arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 75.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 80.3 mph), Slider (15% usage, 82.3 mph), and Splitter (11% usage, 81.1 mph). Despite his diverse pitch mix, he relies more on control than overpowering velocity. The Reds lineup, however, has struggled against his style, projecting a .221 xBA against his offerings.
Nick Martinez (CIN):
Martinez counters with a balanced mix, including a Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 78.6 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 88.7 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (12% usage, 84.6 mph), and Curveball (10% usage, 79.6 mph). His ability to vary his pitches effectively poses a challenge to hitters. The Rockies lineup projects a .253 xBA against his arsenal, which is slightly above their season average of .239.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Rockies lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .253 against Martinez's arsenal. Notable performers include Mickey Moniak, who shows a season BA of .256 that rises to a projected .277 (+21 points) against Martinez, and Jordan Beck, whose BA climbs from .264 to .286 (+22 points). However, Austin Nola sees a decrease from a season BA of .278 to .248 (-30 points) against the same arsenal.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .221 against Gomber's arsenal. The biggest drop comes from Tyler Stephenson, with a season BA of .231 dropping to .182 (-49 points), and Spencer Steer, whose average falls from .251 to .207 (-44 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rockies' projected K-rate is 22.9% against Martinez, which is down 3.5% from their 26.4% season average, suggesting a potential contact play. On the other hand, the Reds' projected K-rate is 27.4% against Gomber, up 5.5% from their 21.9% season average. This indicates a potential value on Gomber's strikeout prop.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Upon reviewing the hitters, none of the Rockies or Reds batters meet the criteria for a betting lean. All projected xBAs are either below .300 or do not have a sufficient boost over 20 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Reds' projected strikeout rate increases to 27.4% against Gomber, which is above the 25% threshold and represents a 5.5% increase from their season average. This meets the criteria for a lean on Gomber's strikeout OVER prop.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be Austin Gomber strikeout OVER - the Reds' projected K-rate jumps to 27.4% against Gomber, up 5.5% from their 21.9% season average.
