Game Time: 7/11, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
Tonight, the Colorado Rockies head to Cincinnati to face off against the Reds in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Great American Ball Park. DraftKings lists the Cincinnati Reds as a substantial -225 favorite, while the Colorado Rockies are the +182 underdog, with a notable 83% of the betting money backing the Reds. Key to this matchup will be the pitching duel and how each lineup handles the respective arsenals they face.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Germán Márquez vs. Chase Burns
Germán Márquez (COL):
Germán Márquez brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 95.2 mph), Curveball (31% usage, 85.7 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 94.7 mph), Slider (12% usage, 89.0 mph), and Changeup (3% usage, 89.1 mph). Márquez is a pitch-mix artist, using a balanced approach to keep hitters off balance. The Reds lineup averages .244 this season with a projected xBA of .244 against Márquez's varied offerings, suggesting a tough matchup for Cincinnati's hitters.
Chase Burns (CIN):
Chase Burns relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage, 98.2 mph) complemented by a Slider (32% usage, 89.8 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 90.6 mph), and Curveball (2% usage, 83.8 mph). Burns is a velocity-heavy pitcher, challenging batters with high heat. The Rockies lineup has a season average of .240 but is expected to hit just .236 against Burns’ power-based arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Rockies lineup averages .240 this season but projects to .236 against Chase Burns' arsenal. Ryan McMahon shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .208 transitioning to an xBA of .251 (+43 points), while Mickey Moniak faces the biggest decrease, dropping from a season BA of .256 to an xBA of .218 (-38 points).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .255 this season and is projected to drop to .244 against Germán Márquez’s offerings. Will Benson shows the biggest increase, moving from a season BA of .224 to an xBA of .280 (+56 points). Conversely, TJ Friedl faces the largest decrease, with his season BA of .278 falling to an xBA of .214 (-64 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rockies’ projected K-rate is 29.8% against Chase Burns, up 2.0% from their 27.8% season average, indicating potential strikeout value. The Reds’ projected K-rate is 27.5% against Germán Márquez, up 2.8% from their 24.7% season average, suggesting some strikeout risk as well.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter from the Rockies or Reds meets the criteria of an xBA over .300 with a boost greater than +20 points, hence no batting leans are suggested.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team exhibits the necessary increase over a 4% threshold in K-rate to suggest a strong lean on strikeout props.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. We recommend caution in any prop betting due to the lack of strong data-driven leans.
