Game Time: 7/25, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Colorado Rockies head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles. DraftKings lists the Orioles as a -217 favorite against the Rockies, who are +176 underdogs, with a staggering 86% of the money backing Baltimore. This game offers intriguing pitcher-batter matchups that could sway the outcome in either direction.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland vs. Dean Kremer
Kyle Freeland (COL):
Freeland brings a diverse pitching arsenal with: Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 92.0 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 83.2 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.9 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 84.0 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 91.4 mph), and Changeup (7% usage, 86.7 mph). This pitch-mix approach can be effective against the Orioles, who average .242 this season with a projected xBA of .242 against Freeland’s offerings.
Dean Kremer (BAL):
Kremer counters with his own varied arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 93.4 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 82.0 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 87.0 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.9 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 78.5 mph), and Slider (0% usage, 83.9 mph). The Rockies, batting .256 on the season, project a slight dip to .261 against Kremer’s mix.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Rockies lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .261 against Kremer’s arsenal. Ezequiel Tovar shows the biggest potential increase: Season BA .265 → xBA vs. arsenal .377 (+112 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (-5.0%). Conversely, Thairo Estrada experiences the largest decrease: Season BA .284 → xBA vs. arsenal .192 (-92 points), Season K% 12.8% → Arsenal K% 27.8% (+15.0%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Orioles lineup, hitting .239 this season, projects marginally higher at .242 against Freeland. Ryan O'Hearn sees the most promising rise: Season BA .281 → xBA vs. arsenal .312 (+31 points), Season K% 16.4% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (-0.2%). Jordan Westburg faces the biggest drop: Season BA .256 → xBA vs. arsenal .227 (-29 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 22.2% (-1.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rockies’ projected K-rate is 25.4% vs. Kremer — down 0.5% from their 26.0% season average, indicating potential contact play. The Orioles’ projected K-rate is 24.8% vs. Freeland — down 0.2% from their 25.0% season average, also suggesting a slight tilt towards contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Ezequiel Tovar stands out with a projected xBA of .377 against Kremer’s arsenal, significantly above the .300 threshold with a +112 point boost, making him a strong lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team meets the criteria for a strikeout prop lean as their projected K-rates do not significantly exceed 25% with an increase of more than 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ezequiel Tovar - his .377 xBA against Kremer’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +112 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our criteria in this matchup.
