Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Reds vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 15)
Last updated: September 15, 2025Game Time: 9/15, 07:45PM
Matchup Setup
Tonight, the Cincinnati Reds visit the St. Louis Cardinals in a closely watched NL Central clash. DraftKings has the Cardinals as a −126 favorite, with 51% of the money backing them, while the Reds are sitting at +104 as underdogs. Key angles to watch are the pitching matchups and lineup adjustments against the opposing arsenals.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Zack Littell vs Matthew Liberatore
Zack Littell (CIN):
- Pitch Arsenal: Slider (28% usage, 87.3 mph), Splitter (28% usage, 83.5 mph), Four-Seam (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 91.5 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 79.6 mph)
Zack Littell is a pitcher who relies on a balanced mix of speed and movement, with a penchant for his slider and splitter, each comprising 28% of his arsenal. The Cardinals lineup has averaged .254 this season but projects to a lower .236 xBA against Littell’s pitch mix.
Matthew Liberatore (STL):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam (29% usage, 93.8 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 77.4 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 88.5 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 94.0 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.1 mph)
Liberatore favors a fastball-heavy approach with a four-seam that he uses 29% of the time, complemented by a sharp slider and curveball. The Reds lineup, with a season average of .257, projects to a .243 xBA against Liberatore’s offerings.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Cincinnati Reds vs Matthew Liberatore:
- The Reds lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .243 vs Liberatore’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Noelvi Marte: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+3 points), Season K% 15.2% → Arsenal K% 18.7% (+3.5%)
- Biggest Decrease: Elly Cruz: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (-32 points), Season K% 25.8% → Arsenal K% 30.4% (+4.6%)
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Zack Littell:
- The Cardinals lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .236 vs Littell’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Brendan Donovan: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .323 (+44 points), Season K% 13.3% → Arsenal K% 17.7% (+4.4%)
- Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .217 (-67 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+4.1%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 23.9% vs Liberatore — up 1.5% from their 22.4% season average.
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 26.3% vs Littell — up 5.0% from their 21.3% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Brendan Donovan (.279 → .323, +44 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Zack Littell strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 26.3% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Brendan Donovan shows a significant increase in expected batting average against Littell, making him a strong prop candidate.
- Zack Littell’s arsenal is likely to elevate the Cardinals’ strikeout rate, presenting an opportunity for a strikeout prop.
- Umpire assignments are yet to be announced, adding uncertainty to prop bets reliant on strike zone tendencies.
- Overall, look for opportunities with Donovan's batting props and Littell's strikeout possibilities.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Reds vs Cardinals game? A: Brendan Donovan is a standout prop opportunity based on his projected performance against Littell.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire details are TBA, which means there’s uncertainty regarding tendencies.
Q: What time is the Reds vs Cardinals game? A: The game starts at 9/15, 07:45PM.
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