Game Time: 7/23, 12:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Cincinnati Reds take on the Washington Nationals, the Reds enter as the favorites, with DraftKings listing them at -143 and the Nationals as +118 underdogs. With 88% of the money backing the Reds, this matchup provides intriguing angles for bettors to explore, particularly with the starting pitchers and lineups.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs. Michael Soroka
Nick Lodolo (CIN):
Nick Lodolo brings a diverse arsenal with a Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (28% usage, 82.0 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 87.8 mph), and Sinker (22% usage, 93.8 mph). Lodolo is a pitch-mix artist rather than a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Nationals lineup averages .260 this season, with a projected xBA of .244 against Lodolo's arsenal, indicating a potential advantage for the pitcher.
Michael Soroka (WSH):
Michael Soroka relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 93.9 mph) and Slurve (35% usage, 80.6 mph), complemented by a Changeup (11% usage, 84.6 mph) and Sinker (10% usage, 93.7 mph). The Reds lineup, which averages .259 this season, projects to hit .247 against Soroka's offerings, suggesting a slight edge for Soroka.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup, with a season average of .259, projects to .247 against Soroka. Jake Fraley shows a modest increase with a season BA of .254 → xBA vs. Soroka's arsenal of .290 (+36 points), Season K% 18.6% → Arsenal K% 13.6% (-5.0%). Conversely, Elly Cruz experiences a significant decrease, with a season BA of .279 → xBA .178 (-101 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 35.0% (+11.0%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Nationals lineup averages .260 but is projected at .244 against Lodolo. Brady House shows a slight increase in xBA, moving from .279 → .286 (+7 points), Season K% 21.8% → Arsenal K% 30.4% (+8.6%). Alex Call, however, sees a drop from a season BA of .275 → xBA .211 (-64 points), Season K% 14.5% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (+1.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 29.9% vs. Soroka — up 6.8% from their 23.1% season average, suggesting potential value on Soroka's strikeout props. Meanwhile, the Nationals' projected K-rate is 24.0% vs. Lodolo — up 3.0% from their 21.1% season average, indicating modest potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter from the provided data meets the betting criteria of an xBA > 0.300 and a boost > +20 points. Therefore, no individual batting props are recommended for this matchup.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Reds' projected K-rate of 29.9% vs. Soroka is significantly higher than their season average and exceeds the 25% threshold with a 6.8% increase, making Soroka's strikeout OVER a potential lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be Michael Soroka strikeout OVER - the Reds' projected K-rate jumps to 29.9% vs. Soroka, up 6.8% from their 23.1% season average. No significant batting props meet our criteria in this matchup.
