Game Time: 7/22, 06:45 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Cincinnati Reds face off against the Washington Nationals in what promises to be an intriguing matchup on July 22 at 6:45 PM. DraftKings lists the Reds as a -142 favorite, while the Nationals are a +117 underdog, with 85% of the betting money currently favoring Cincinnati. This game will see a clash of pitching styles that could heavily influence the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Chase Burns vs. Brad Lord
Chase Burns (CIN):
Chase Burns brings a high-velocity approach with a Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage, 98.1 mph), complemented by a Slider (33% usage, 89.9 mph), a Changeup (5% usage, 90.6 mph), and an occasional Curveball (2% usage, 83.4 mph). This velocity-heavy arsenal has a distinct power style, aimed at overpowering hitters. The Nationals lineup averages .253 this season, with a projected xBA of .257 against Burns' powerful offerings.
Brad Lord (WSH):
Brad Lord counters with a diverse mix, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage, 95.0 mph), Slider (18% usage, 84.9 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 94.9 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 85.7 mph), and a rare Slurve (0% usage, 82.3 mph). This varied pitch mix positions him as a pitch-mix artist. The Reds lineup, averaging .259 this season, projects a .255 xBA against Lord's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .255 against Brad Lord's pitch mix. Jake Fraley stands out with a season BA of .254 moving to a projected xBA of .281 (+27 points), and a K% improvement from 18.59% to 13.2% (-5.39%). Conversely, Elly Cruz sees a drop from a .279 season BA to .244 xBA (-35 points) and a K% rise from 24.02% to 30.9% (+6.88%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Nationals lineup, with a season average of .253, projects to improve slightly to .257 against Chase Burns. Jr. García shows a significant increase, moving from a .250 season BA to .320 xBA (+70 points), with a K% drop from 22.5% to 15.1% (-7.4%). On the flip side, Josh Bell's numbers decline from .280 season BA to .247 xBA (-33 points), with a K% increase from 13.88% to 20.8% (+6.92%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 22.69% vs. Brad Lord — down 0.41% from their 23.10% season average, indicating a potential decrease in strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Nationals' projected K-rate of 22.12% against Chase Burns is slightly up by 0.01% from their 22.11% season average, suggesting minimal change in strikeout tendencies.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jr. García's projected .320 xBA against Chase Burns meets both criteria for a potential lean, with a +70 point boost over his season average, well above the .300 threshold. Other batters did not meet the criteria for a lean due to lower xBA projections.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team's projected strikeout rate against the opposing pitcher met the criteria for a lean on strikeout props, as increases were minimal or strikeout rates did not surpass 25%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jr. García - his .320 xBA against Chase Burns' arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +70 point boost.
