Game Time: 7/20, 01:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Cincinnati Reds face off against the New York Mets, the Mets enter as the favorites with a -154 line, while the Reds are the +127 underdogs. Currently, 66% of the betting public is backing the Mets. This matchup highlights two intriguing pitching styles and potential lineup mismatches that could sway the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott vs. David Peterson
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 92.4 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 84.5 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 80.9 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 82.5 mph), Cutter (4% usage, 88.3 mph). Abbott is a pitch-mix artist, leaning heavily on his fastball and changeup to confound hitters. The Mets lineup averages .247 this season with a projected xBA of .248 vs. Abbott's arsenal, suggesting a slightly challenging matchup for Abbott.
David Peterson (NYM):
Sinker (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (21% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.2 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.7 mph). Peterson utilizes a balanced mix with a slight emphasis on sinking action to induce ground balls. The Reds lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .242 against Peterson's arsenal, indicating a potential advantage for Peterson.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .242 against Peterson's arsenal. Elly Cruz sees the largest decrease in xBA: Season BA .280 → xBA vs. arsenal .241 (-39 points), Season K% 24.5% → Arsenal K% 30.3% (+5.8%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Mets lineup averages .250 this season with a projected .248 against Abbott's arsenal. Juan Soto presents the biggest increase: Season BA .259 → xBA vs. arsenal .322 (+63 points), Season K% 19.2% → Arsenal K% 18.8% (-0.4%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs. Peterson — up 1.1% from their 21.1% season average. The Mets' projected K-rate is 23.1% vs. Abbott — up 4.2% from their 18.9% season average. This suggests a potential for higher strikeouts for the Mets against Abbott.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batter from the Reds meets the criteria of xBA > 0.300 AND boost > +20 points. However, Juan Soto (.259 → .322, +63 points) meets both criteria, suggesting a lean on his batting performance.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Mets' K-rate against Abbott rises to 23.1%, up 4.2% from their season average of 18.9%, suggesting potential value on Abbott's strikeout props leaning over.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Juan Soto - his .322 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +63 point boost. Additionally, Andrew Abbott's strikeout prop is worth considering over, as the Mets' projected K-rate jumps to 23.1% vs. Abbott, up 4.2% from their 18.9% season average.
