Game Time: 7/19, 04:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Cincinnati Reds take on the New York Mets, all eyes will be on the mound and the batter's box in this intriguing matchup. With the Mets listed as a -181 favorite by DraftKings and 77% of the money backing New York, the pressure is on the Reds, who come in as +148 underdogs. This game provides an exciting opportunity for both teams to showcase their strengths and for bettors to capitalize on potential mismatches.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs. Clay Holmes
Nick Martinez (CIN):
Nick Martinez brings a diverse pitch mix to the table with a Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 78.6 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 88.7 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (12% usage, 84.7 mph), and Curveball (10% usage, 79.6 mph). He is a true pitch-mix artist, relying on variability rather than sheer velocity to challenge hitters. However, the Mets lineup shows a favorable projection, averaging .277 this season with a projected xBA of .277 against Martinez’s arsenal.
Clay Holmes (NYM):
Clay Holmes counters with a formidable arsenal led by his Slider (36% usage, 85.4 mph) and Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 94.5 mph), complemented by a Curveball (15% usage, 83.5 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 92.2 mph), and a rarely used Changeup (1% usage, 90.2 mph). The Reds lineup, however, has struggled, averaging .258 this season with a projected xBA of .242 against Holmes’s pitches, indicating a potential uphill battle for Cincinnati's hitters.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .258 this season but projects to just .242 against Holmes's arsenal. Will Benson shows a notable increase, improving from a season BA of .223 to an xBA of .280 (+57 points), though his strikeout rate increases by 4.4%. Conversely, Elly Cruz experiences the biggest drop, from a season BA of .283 to an xBA of .238 (-45 points), with his strikeout rate jumping by 7.5%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Mets lineup averages .248 but projects a robust .277 against Martinez's arsenal. Juan Soto stands out with a substantial boost, moving from a season BA of .262 to an xBA of .328 (+66 points), while Ronny Mauricio sees a slight decline from .256 to .242 (-14 points), with a significant K-rate increase of 5.9%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 27.3% against Holmes, up 2.8% from their 24.5% season average, suggesting moderate strikeout potential. The Mets, on the other hand, exhibit a slight decrease in strikeouts, projecting at 18.6% against Martinez, down 0.4% from their 19.0% season average, indicating a potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment Unknown
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without umpire tendencies, bettors should exercise caution when considering strikeout and walk props, as these can significantly sway based on the officiating crew.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Upon reviewing the data, Juan Soto (.261 → .328, +66 points) emerges as a potential lean due to his xBA exceeding the .300 threshold and a substantial boost of over +20 points. No other batter meets the criteria for a lean, as their xBA values fall below the necessary .300 mark.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Reds' projected strikeout rate of 27.3% against Holmes is significantly above the 25% benchmark, but the increase from their season average is only 2.8%, which does not meet our criteria for a strikeout prop lean. Similarly, the Mets' projected K-rate decrease does not meet the criteria for a contact play.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Juan Soto - his .328 xBA against Martinez's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +66 point boost. No significant pitching prop leans are identified based on the strikeout data available.
