Game Time: 7/18, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
In this intriguing matchup, the Cincinnati Reds take on the New York Mets at Citi Field. DraftKings lists the Mets as a -169 favorite, while the Reds are a +137 underdog, with 71% of the money backing the Mets. This game promises to be an exciting battle with two dynamic pitchers on the mound.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs. David Peterson
Nick Lodolo (CIN):
Nick Lodolo brings a diverse pitch arsenal featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (27% usage, 82.0 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 87.9 mph), and Sinker (22% usage, 93.8 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Lodolo relies on his ability to keep hitters guessing. The Mets lineup averages .246 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against Lodolo's arsenal, indicating they may fare well against his mix.
David Peterson (NYM):
David Peterson counters with his Sinker (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (21% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.2 mph), and Curveball (12% usage, 78.7 mph). Peterson is known for his ability to induce ground balls with his sinking action. The Reds lineup, however, averages .257 this season but projects to .249 against Peterson's arsenal, suggesting a slight decline in performance.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .257 this season and projects to .249 against Peterson's arsenal. Will Benson shows a significant increase in xBA, from a season BA of .223 to an arsenal xBA of .299 (+76 points), with a season K% of 29.31% dropping to an arsenal K% of 28.2% (-1.11%). On the downside, Elly Cruz sees a decrease from .284 to .241 (-43 points), with an increase in K% from 24.34% to 30.6% (+6.26%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Mets lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .264 against Lodolo's arsenal. Juan Soto stands out with a jump from a season BA of .262 to an arsenal xBA of .307 (+45 points), and a K% decrease from 18.44% to 16.3% (-2.14%). Conversely, Ronny Mauricio's xBA decreases from .255 to .239 (-16 points), with a K% increase from 8.88% to 19.7% (+10.82%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 25.93% vs. Peterson—up 1.30% from their 24.63% season average, indicating a slight uptick in strikeouts. The Mets' projected K-rate is 21.6% vs. Lodolo—up 2.38% from their 19.22% season average, suggesting increased strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Among the key performers, Juan Soto's projected xBA of .307 against Lodolo's arsenal, with a +45 point boost, meets the criteria for a potential lean. Will Benson's .299 xBA, while below the .300 threshold, shows a significant boost but doesn't qualify for a lean as it doesn't exceed .300.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Reds' nor the Mets' projected K-rates exceed 25% with a 4% increase, so no lean is suggested for strikeout props here.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Juan Soto—his .307 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +45 point boost.
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for other props.
