September 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Rays vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)

Last updated: September 23, 2025

Game Time: 9/23, 06:35PM

Game Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays face off against the Baltimore Orioles in what is expected to be a tightly contested matchup. While the betting odds are not available for this game, both teams have shown unique strengths in their lineups and pitching staffs. This preview will dive into the detailed statistical matchups and potential prop bets for savvy bettors.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Pepiot (TB) vs Dean Kremer (BAL)

Ryan Pepiot (TB):

Ryan Pepiot brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound with a reliance on his Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 95.1 mph), complemented by a Changeup (25% usage, 86.7 mph), Slider (17% usage, 89.0 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 80.7 mph), and Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph). Pepiot's mix of velocity and pitch variety makes him a formidable opponent for the Orioles, whose lineup averages .240 this season with a projected xBA of .240 vs Pepiot's arsenal.

Dean Kremer (BAL):

Dean Kremer will counter for the Orioles with his own varied arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 93.3 mph), Splitter (21% usage, 81.9 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 86.9 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.9 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.3 mph). The Rays' lineup, known for its adaptability, averages .250 this season but projects a slightly better .257 xBA against Kremer's offerings.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Rays vs Dean Kremer: The Rays lineup averages .250 this season and projects to .257 against Kremer's arsenal. Key performers include:

Hunter Feduccia: Season BA .167 → xBA vs arsenal .221 (+54 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 15.2% (-8.9%)
Chandler Simpson: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (-26 points), Season K% 10.0% → Arsenal K% 14.5% (+4.5%)

For Orioles vs Ryan Pepiot: The Orioles lineup averages .238 this season but projects to .240 against Pepiot's arsenal. Key performers include:

Colton Cowser: Season BA .198 → xBA vs arsenal .223 (+25 points), Season K% 35.5% → Arsenal K% 34.0% (-1.5%)
Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-35 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 27.6% (+5.2%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For Rays: The Rays' projected K-rate is 19.5% vs Dean Kremer — down 3.2% from their 22.7% season average.

For Orioles: The Orioles' projected K-rate is 26.1% vs Ryan Pepiot — up 0.9% from their 25.3% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Hunter Feduccia (.167 → .221, +54 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No strikeout prop alerts meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Hunter Feduccia shows significant potential for a batting prop with a +54 point increase in xBA.
The Rays lineup shows a reduced strikeout risk, potentially increasing their on-base potential.
The Orioles face a higher strikeout risk against Pepiot, indicating caution for hitters.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Orioles game? A: Hunter Feduccia is a strong candidate, meeting our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA boost.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to determine tendencies at this time.

Q: What time is the Rays vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/23, 06:35PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---