Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Rays vs Nationals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 31)
Last updated: August 31, 2025Game Time: 8/31, 01:35PM
Brief Intro
The Tampa Bay Rays face off against the Washington Nationals in what promises to be an intriguing matchup this afternoon. According to DraftKings, the Rays are favored at -149, while the Nationals are +123 underdogs, with 59% of the betting money backing the Nationals. This game may hinge on the pitching battle and how each lineup adapts to the opposing pitchers' arsenals.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Ian Seymour (TB) vs Brad Lord (WSH)
Ian Seymour (TB):
- Arsenal: Changeup (35% usage, 83.7 mph), Four-Seam (31% usage, 92.1 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 88.4 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 81.3 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 90.9 mph), Curveball (0% usage, 71.7 mph)
Ian Seymour is a pitch-mix artist relying heavily on his changeup and four-seam fastball. The Nationals lineup averages .242 this season but projects to an xBA of .231 against Seymour's diverse pitch arsenal, indicating a potential challenge in making solid contact.
Brad Lord (WSH):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam (52% usage, 94.9 mph), Slider (19% usage, 85.5 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 94.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 86.0 mph), Slurve (0% usage, 82.3 mph)
Brad Lord leans on a power-oriented approach, with a four-seam fastball that he uses over half the time. The Rays lineup, which averages .261 this season, sees a slight downtick to .2565 against Lord's arsenal, primarily due to his velocity and movement.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Rays vs Brad Lord:
- Chandler Simpson: Season BA .295 → xBA vs arsenal .316 (+21 points), Season K% 10.2% → Arsenal K% 8.0% (-2.2%)
- Jake Mangum: Season BA .285 → xBA vs arsenal .252 (-33 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 19.4% (+4.7%)
For Nationals vs Ian Seymour:
- CJ Abrams: Season BA .269 → xBA vs arsenal .301 (+32 points), Season K% 17.8% → Arsenal K% 13.2% (-4.6%)
- Andrés Chaparro: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .097 (-153 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 31.2% (+8.7%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Rays: Projected K-rate is 21.0% vs Brad Lord — up 1.5% from their 19.4% season average.
- Nationals: Projected K-rate is 24.2% vs Ian Seymour — up 0.4% from their 23.8% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Chandler Simpson (.295 → .316, +21 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities based on the current data.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Chandler Simpson is a strong batting proposition with a notable increase in xBA against Brad Lord.
- CJ Abrams is projected to excel against Ian Seymour, presenting a potential hit prop opportunity.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities present themselves, given the modest upticks in projected K-rates.
- Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding an element of unpredictability to prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Nationals game? A: Chandler Simpson is a standout option, meeting our batting lean criteria with a projected xBA of .316.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so there’s an element of uncertainty regarding bias.
Q: What time is the Rays vs Nationals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/31 at 01:35PM.
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