Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Rays vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 27)
Last updated: September 27, 2025Game Time: 9/27, 03:07PM
Game Preview
Tonight, the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a crucial late-season matchup. According to DraftKings, the Blue Jays are favored at -164, with the Rays as +134 underdogs, and a significant 82% of the betting money backing Toronto. This game promises a fascinating duel between power pitchers and strategic batting lineups.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Joe Boyle vs Trey Yesavage
Joe Boyle (TB):
Joe Boyle brings a high-velocity approach to the mound, featuring a robust arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage, 98.6 mph), Slider (34% usage, 91.0 mph), and Splitter (16% usage, 93.1 mph). Boyle relies heavily on power, challenging hitters with speed and late movement. However, the Blue Jays lineup has a season average of .258 but only projects a slightly lower xBA of .256 against Boyle's offerings.
Trey Yesavage (TOR):
Trey Yesavage counters with a well-balanced pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 94.3 mph), Splitter (30% usage, 83.9 mph), and Slider (26% usage, 88.3 mph). Yesavage's varied pitch selection keeps hitters guessing, though the Rays have a season average of .263, which dips to a projected xBA of .248 against his arsenal.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
Rays vs Trey Yesavage:
The Rays lineup, with a season average of .263, projects to hit .248 against Yesavage's arsenal. Key performers include:
- Yandy Díaz: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .272 (+22 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 25.0% (+2.5%)
- Chandler Simpson: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (-24 points), Season K% 10.0% → Arsenal K% 17.7% (+7.7%)
Blue Jays vs Joe Boyle:
The Blue Jays are hitting .258 this season, with a projected xBA of .256 against Boyle. Notable shifts include:
- Addison Barger: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (+30 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 25.1% (+1.2%)
- George Springer: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .260 (-43 points), Season K% 19.2% → Arsenal K% 26.7% (+7.5%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Rays: Projected K-rate is 26.3% vs Yesavage — up 5.1% from their 21.2% season average. This indicates a potential value in strikeout props for Yesavage.
- Blue Jays: Projected K-rate is 21.2% vs Boyle — up 2.9% from their 18.4% season average, suggesting a moderate increase in strikeouts.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Addison Barger (.243 → .273, +30 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Trey Yesavage strikeout OVER - Rays' K-rate jumps to 26.3% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Addison Barger of the Blue Jays stands out as a strong batting prop due to his favorable matchup.
- Trey Yesavage's increased strikeout potential against the Rays makes his K props appealing.
- Uncertainty with the umpire assignment adds a layer of volatility to overall prop bets.
- Overall, the Blue Jays have a slight edge with the betting public heavily backing them.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Jays game? A: Addison Barger is a standout candidate with a significant xBA increase against Boyle's arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Q: What time is the Rays vs Jays game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/27, 03:07PM.
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