Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Rays vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 14)
Last updated: September 14, 2025Game Time: 9/14, 02:20PM
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs in an intriguing matchup that sees the Cubs as the favorites. DraftKings lists the Cubs at -169, making them the favored team, with the Rays as +138 underdogs. Notably, 83% of the betting money is backing the Cubs in this contest.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Adrian Houser vs Shota Imanaga
Adrian Houser (TB):
Adrian Houser brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound: Sinker (47% usage, 94.3 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.8 mph), Slider (13% usage, 87.5 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 81.7 mph), and Four-Seam (12% usage, 95.2 mph). Houser's pitch mix highlights his reliance on a velocity-heavy sinker, aiming to induce ground balls and weak contact. The Cubs lineup is averaging .251 this season and projects to hit .253 against Houser's arsenal, suggesting a close matchup.
Shota Imanaga (CHC):
Shota Imanaga features a varied set of pitches: Four-Seam (50% usage, 90.8 mph), Splitter (32% usage, 82.9 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.2 mph), Curveball (2% usage, 71.6 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 88.1 mph). Imanaga's pitch mix makes him a pitch-mix artist, able to keep hitters off balance with his secondary offerings. The Rays lineup averages .240 this season with a projected xBA of .235 against Imanaga's arsenal, indicating a potential edge for the Cubs' pitcher.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Rays vs Shota Imanaga:
- The Rays lineup averages .240 this season but projects to .235 versus Imanaga's arsenal.
- Chandler Simpson: Season BA .293 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (-14 points), Season K% 9.6% → Arsenal K% 19.7% (+10.1%)
- Everson Pereira: Season BA .145 → xBA vs arsenal .109 (-36 points), Season K% 39.3% → Arsenal K% 25.5% (-13.8%)
For the Cubs vs Adrian Houser:
- The Cubs lineup averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .253 versus Houser's offerings.
- Ian Happ: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (+53 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (-4.5%)
- Moisés Ballesteros: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .157 (-93 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 1.2% (-21.3%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Imanaga — up 0.7% from their 24.8% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 17.7% vs Houser — down 2.8% from their 20.5% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.240 → .293, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant pitcher strikeout prop opportunities meet our criteria.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ shows a significant batting advantage against Houser, with a 53-point increase in xBA.
- Moisés Ballesteros could struggle significantly against Houser, showing a 93-point decrease in xBA.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, increasing volatility in prop bets.
- Overall, betting leans favor Ian Happ's batting props given his projected performance.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TB vs CHC game? A: Ian Happ meets our strict betting criteria with a strong projected performance against Houser.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.
Q: What time is the TB vs CHC game? A: 9/14, 02:20PM
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