September 13, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Rays vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)

Last updated: September 13, 2025

Game Time: 9/13, 02:20PM

Game Overview

The Tampa Bay Rays head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. While betting odds are not available for this game, the pitching duel and lineup dynamics will be key factors for bettors to consider.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Colin Rea

Drew Rasmussen (TB):

Drew Rasmussen presents a diverse pitch arsenal, including a Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage, 95.8 mph), Cutter (31% usage, 90.3 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 95.4 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 84.6 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 80.6 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 89.4 mph). Rasmussen's high velocity on his fastballs and cutters position him as a power pitcher. The Cubs lineup has a season average of .248 but projects a higher xBA of .278 against Rasmussen's arsenal, indicating potential challenges for the Rays in controlling Chicago's hitters.

Colin Rea (CHC):

Colin Rea counters with a varied mix: Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (12% usage, 87.3 mph), Slider (10% usage, 85.0 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 82.6 mph), and Cutter (8% usage, 88.1 mph). Rea's extensive repertoire makes him a pitch-mix artist. The Rays lineup, averaging .245 this season, projects to hit .249 against Rea’s arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Rays vs Colin Rea:

The Rays lineup averages .245 this season but projects to .249 vs Rea's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Richie Palacios: Season BA .203 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (+29 points), Season K% 24.8% → Arsenal K% 18.9% (-5.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Jake Mangum: Season BA .295 → xBA vs arsenal .268 (-27 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 18.0% (+3.6%)

For Cubs vs Drew Rasmussen:

The Cubs lineup averages .249 this season, projecting to .278 vs Rasmussen's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Dansby Swanson: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .322 (+77 points), Season K% 26.6% → Arsenal K% 23.2% (-3.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Matt Shaw: Season BA .226 → xBA vs arsenal .188 (-38 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+3.2%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Rays' projected K-rate is 22.3% vs Colin Rea — up 1.4% from their 20.9% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 18.7% vs Drew Rasmussen — down 2.6% from their 21.3% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Richie Palacios (.203 → .232, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop alerts meet our criteria today.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Richie Palacios offers a notable batting advantage against Colin Rea, making him a potential prop target.
The Cubs lineup projects well against Rasmussen, with Dansby Swanson showing significant potential for improvement.
The absence of umpire data introduces some uncertainty in strikeout and walk prop predictions.
Consider focusing on individual batter props given the lineup matchups and statistical projections.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Cubs game? A: Richie Palacios stands out as a potential prop target given his projected improvement against Colin Rea.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess umpire tendencies.

Q: What time is the Rays vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/13 at 02:20 PM.

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