Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Rays vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 12)
Last updated: September 12, 2025Game Time: 9/12, 02:20PM
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays take on the Chicago Cubs in an intriguing matchup at Wrigley Field. The Cubs enter as a -169 favorite, with the Rays as +138 underdogs. Notably, 85% of the betting action favors the Cubs, indicating strong public confidence in the home team. As both teams look to gain an edge in this contest, the pitching matchup and lineup dynamics will play a crucial role.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz (TB) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Shane Baz (TB):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 96.9 mph), Curveball (27% usage, 85.0 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 90.2 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 89.4 mph), Slider (3% usage, 86.7 mph)
Shane Baz brings a velocity-heavy approach with a predominant use of his four-seam fastball and curveball. The Chicago Cubs lineup, which averages .248 this season, projects to a slightly higher .261 xBA against Baz's mix, potentially leveraging his fastball-centric style.
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.8 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.6 mph), Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph)
Boyd relies on a balanced arsenal with a focus on his fastball and changeup. The Tampa Bay lineup, averaging .239 this season, projects a similar .239 xBA against Boyd's pitches, suggesting a relatively even matchup.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Tampa Bay vs Matthew Boyd:
- The Rays lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .239 against Boyd's arsenal.
- Chandler Simpson shows promise with a significant increase: Season BA .284 → xBA vs Boyd .305 (+21 points), Season K% 10.0% → Arsenal K% 9.6% (-0.4%).
- Nick Fortes faces challenges: Season BA .214 → xBA vs Boyd .167 (-47 points), Season K% 19.6% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (+1.4%).
For Chicago vs Shane Baz:
- The Cubs lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .261 against Baz's arsenal.
- Ian Happ is a standout with a notable boost: Season BA .237 → xBA vs Baz .280 (+43 points), Season K% 22.1% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+0.2%).
- Matt Shaw struggles: Season BA .226 → xBA vs Baz .172 (-54 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 34.7% (+14.1%).
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 26.8% vs Boyd — up 1.6% from their 25.2% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Baz — up 2.7% from their 21.3% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Chandler Simpson (.284 → .305, +21 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Matthew Boyd strikeout OVER - Rays' K-rate jumps to 26.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Chandler Simpson stands out with a strong xBA increase, making him a compelling prop option.
- Matthew Boyd's strikeout potential is enhanced against a Rays lineup with a rising K-rate.
- Umpire assignment uncertainty adds a layer of volatility to prop bets.
- Overall betting leans towards Cubs' victory, but value exists in individual props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Cubs game? A: Chandler Simpson is the best prop option with a significant increase in xBA against Boyd's arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so current tendencies are unknown.
Q: What time is the Rays vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/12, 02:20PM.
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