Game Time: 7/30, 07:05PM
1. Brief Intro
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees in a matchup set to intrigue both fans and bettors. The Yankees, favored at -143 according to DraftKings, have captured 64% of the betting money, making the Rays a +118 underdog. This game features two pitchers with distinct styles that could shape the outcome decisively.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Zack Littell vs Will Warren
Zack Littell (TB):
Littell brings a diverse pitching arsenal with his slider (31% usage, 87.3 mph), splitter (27% usage, 83.5 mph), four-seam (23% usage, 92.1 mph), sinker (16% usage, 91.4 mph), and sweeper (4% usage, 79.8 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, his arsenal creates challenges for opposing hitters. The Yankees lineup averages .246 this season with a projected xBA of .228 against Littell's offerings, indicating a potential advantage for Littell.
Will Warren (NYY):
Warren relies heavily on his four-seam (40% usage, 93.2 mph) and complements it with a sweeper (22% usage, 82.6 mph), sinker (20% usage, 92.9 mph), changeup (11% usage, 86.9 mph), and curveball (7% usage, 79.8 mph). His blend of velocity and movement could spell trouble for the Rays, whose lineup averages .267 this season but projects to .258 against Warren's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Rays lineup anticipates a slight dip, averaging .267 this season but projecting to .258 against Warren's pitches. Chandler Simpson stands out with a notable increase: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .352 (+52 points), Season K% 8.7% → Arsenal K% 7.6% (-1.1%). Jonathan Aranda experiences the biggest decrease: Season BA .315 → xBA vs arsenal .288 (-27 points), Season K% 24.9% → Arsenal K% 25.6% (+0.7%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup sees a challenge, averaging .246 this season but only .229 against Littell’s arsenal. Jasson Domínguez shows a minor increase: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .261 (+11 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 27.8% (+5.3%). Ben Rice sees the biggest decline: Season BA .274 → xBA vs arsenal .215 (-59 points), Season K% 21.5% → Arsenal K% 27.2% (+5.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Rays' projected K-rate is 21.0% vs Warren — up 1.3% from their 19.7% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeout risk. The Yankees' projected K-rate is 26.9% vs Littell — up 2.4% from their 24.5% season average, showing a heightened strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Bettors should be cautious as the absence of known umpire tendencies introduces additional uncertainty into the strikeout and walk prop markets.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Chandler Simpson (.300 → .352, +52 points) presents a potential batting lean as his xBA against Warren’s arsenal exceeds the .300 threshold with a significant boost of +52 points. No other batters meet the criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team’s projected strikeout rate meets the criteria for a strikeout prop lean. Both increases are below the 4% threshold required for a strong lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Chandler Simpson - his .352 xBA against Will Warren’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +52 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.
